October
7
Gay Marriage Trails in New Poll
Updated
Alarm bells are sounding among California same-sex marriage supporters after a new poll showed an apparent shift in voter sentiment in favor of Proposition 8.
That measure would restrict marriage to heterosexual couples, and end the same-sex nuptuals that started in June following a California State Supreme court decision.
California voters now favor Prop. 8 by 47 percent to 42 percent, according to a new CBS 5 poll, with a 3.6 percent margin of error.
What happened? To put it simply, the Yes on 8 campaign put out a more effective ad, and, with more money to run it, has been blanketing the state. Amazingly enough, younger voters now support the measure after initially opposing it.
Despite a Sept. 18 Field Poll that showed the measure failing by a wide margin, the No on 8 campaign's internal polling showed that the race has always been competitive, and a movement toward support of the measure in recent days. That's why those who've been working on the campaign have warned all along of complacency, perhaps born out in a lag in fund-raising.
I'm told that changes are afoot at the No on 8 campaign, with plans for a more centralized decision making rather than rule by an executive committee. I'm not sure whether a new ad strategy will be pursued, but there is pressure to make some changes.
Update: Equality California, which is among the groups trying defeat the measure, said today that Yes on 8 folks have raised $25.4 million, about $10 million more than they have.
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Call this a fall out of the Billionaire Bailout Bill. Never in American history was there a bill more opposed by the American people. 99.99% of calls recieved on Capitol Hill were against this bill despite a huge calling effort for it by the Builders' and Bankers' associations. The bill was percieved as elitist and favoring the rich against the middle class.
Now America is experiencing a wave of anti-elitism. McCain's mistake was not to listen to Sarah Palin and oppose this bill. Had he done so, he would have ridden a tidal wave into the White House. Unfortunately, now, there was no national political and entertainment figure who rose up against it. Now Americans are pissed off (rarely do calls come into congressional offices after a vote -- yet angry voters are still calling in droves to berate there congresswomen and men for their vote on this bill).
Lacking a political leader to channel their anger they have chosen propositions that appear to be elitist lead (or in this case, and even better, opposed). No proposition more personifies this phenomenon better than Prop 8 with its opponents being Hollywood elitist and actors. My suggestion is that the opposition reposition itself and drop its Hollywood bias. It needs to higlight more sympathietic middle class stories. This would draw on middle class sympathies and values of fairness and equity.
P.S. Do not let actors and other percieved elitists announce their donations as some sort of grand gesture anymore -- these gestures have the same effect as telling the masses to "eat cake." It highlights their elitism and insensitivity while angering the middle class.
Posted by: William Bauer MD | October 09, 2008 at 06:20 AM