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May 14, 2008

The Edwards Nod and Clinton's Response

I talked with big backers in the Obama and Clinton camps about the Edwards endorsement --- and while there are some doubts as to how much impact it will have so late in the primary process, it did come at an opportune time for the Illinois senator.

Hillary Clinton's lopsided victory in West Viriginia got trumped on the network and cable newscasts, as did her blitz of interviews today.

Clinton's reaction was that it was "no big surprise to her," according to one of the fund-raisers who gathered at her D.C. home on Wednesday. Clinton had gathered the group for a meeting to talk about the status of the race and her path to the nomination.

When she arrived at the meeting, she told them that she had just talked on the phone with Edwards, who informed her of his Obama endorsement. It was news to those in the room, but she signaled it was not unexpected. (Edwards has hinted at it in recent weeks.)

What transpired instead at the meeting was a roadmap for how she could stage a come from behind victory: Racking up enough popular vote, particularly with Puerto Rico on June 1, to score a majority (with Florida included) and convince superdelegates to shift her way. And, of course, they also will press for the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations at the May 31 meeting of the DNC Rules & Bylaws committee.

The case to superdelegates centers on electability, and at the meeting some of those there like Ed Rendell expressed major doubts that Obama can win in industrial states like Ohio and other large states like Florida in the general election.

Clinton is due in Los Angeles on Thursday night for a fund-raiser at the Century Plaza Hotel. Sim Farar, one of Clinton's national finance chairs, said the event was "sold out."

About to return to board a plane from Washington D.C., he described the Wednesday meeting as "very positive in how we're going to win this."

"We all left there on a high note," he says. "We believe she is going to win."

One note: Clinton does lead in the popular vote on the Real Clear Politics tabulation, but only if Florida and Michigan are included and the votes of Washington, Iowa, Nevada and Maine are excluded. Obama also would get no votes out of Michigan because his name was not on the ballot.

Comments

Clinton trails in polls for both the nomination and the general election; has won far fewer primaries and caucuses; has received fewer votes in contests held according to the DNC election rules; is dropping further and further behind in both pledged delegates and superdelegates; is more than $20 million in debt; and is endorsed by none of the other presidential candidates who campaigned with her last year and this year.

As Edwards said today: the Democratic voters of America have made their choice.

TKD - no need to snow yourself. Obama has generated his lead based on his success in Red state caucuses. He hasn't won any of the stalwart Democratic states, he obviously can't attract any of the blue collar white voters in the Rust belt. He has a barren left wing liberal list of accomplishments. It's fun to watch the public excited by this emperor with no clothes, but at some point the rubber will hit the road, and the Democrats are likely to find themselves with another McGovern, Dukakis, Mondale, Kerry....

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Wilshire & Washington highlights the enduring relationship between entertainment and politics. More than a mere curiosity, the intersection of these worlds play out daily in fund raising, celebrity causes, show business lobbying and creative expression. Variety managing editor Ted Johnson provides the daily dose with contributions from reporters in L.A. and D.C.

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