Wilshire & Washington

To Shill or Chill

Californians are in Des Moines in droves tonight, in what one Obama donor compared to Sundance for the politically motivated class.

In other words, there will be a bevy of parties and events and each time you'll be wondering whether you've picked the right one.

Among those in the industry braving the single-digit temps this week are Ted Danson and Mary Steenburgen for the Clinton campaign, Michael and Jamie Lynton for the Obama campaign and Skip Paul for the Edwards campaign. Also in town: political consultant Noah Mamet (who has been raising money for Clinton), Kal Penn (for Obama), Richard Schiff (for Joe Biden), John Mellencamp (for John Edwards) and Chuck Norris (for Mike Huckabee). The Colorado band Big Head Todd and the Monsters plays for Hillary Clinton at a New Year's Eve celebration tonight, says Michael Sprengelmeyer, who has been camped out in Iowa for the better part of this year for the Rocky Mountain News.

Over the weekend, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom stumped for Hillary Clinton, but they have left for warmer climes.

"We didn't just breeze through town," jokes Los Angeles City Council President Eric Garcetti, Obama's California co-chair, who is in Iowa through Friday. He's planning to attend an event at Centro, one of the higher-end Des Moines restaurants, as well as a dinner hosted by Obama's National Finance Committee.

I talked to him this afternoon about the state of the race and he calls it "really, really tight."

"It absolutely is," he says.

Garcetti has been walking precincts, working the phones and speaking to potential caucusgoers since Friday, along with San Francisco district attorney Kamala Harris, California co-chair for Obama. His impression? That the Obama campaign has been able to expand the universe of poitential caucusgoers, but it will take more work to make sure they turn out.

In a conference call with reporters this morning, Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe played up some of the crowds that the candidate has been attracting (Garcetti said he attended one event last night at Meeks Junior High School in Des Moines that drew 1,500 people), and even provided a chart that compares Obama's sizes to Clinton and Edwards. But crowds don't guarantee turnout, and perhaps to temper expectations --- which is key to the caucus --- Plouffe cited a 1 on 7 "avalanche" of spending by Obama's rivals and outside 527 groups.

Garcetti says that no caucusgoers he's talked to have mentioned any of the 527 attack ads to him. Obama has in turn showed "restraint" by making "teasing barbs of the criticism of him but he doesn't go on the offense."

Other than being in the middle of the media universe, there's another advantage to braving the Iowa ice.

"Iowans are much more polite than when I've made calls in other places," Garcetti says.

The Big Stumble?

Mike Huckabee held a press conference in Des Moines to announce that he is pulling an ad that his campaign was prepared to unleash against Mitt Romney. Then he played the ad for the reporters gathered.

Per Mark Halperin of Time, here is a partial transcript:

NARRATOR: Romney’s record– over $700 million in new taxes. Left office with a deficit. No executions. Supported gun control. And Romney’s government-mandated health plan provided a $50 copay for abortion.

HUCKABEE: If a man’s dishonest to obtain a job, he’ll be dishonest on the job. Iowans deserve better.

Harsh.

Journalists immediately suspected a ploy to gain a lot of free media time for the ad from Huckabee's underfunded campaign.

"Well, you can be cynical about this...but if we hadn't shown the ad, you would have said we didn't make it."

Writes Joe Klein of Time, "That sound you hear rumbling out of Des Moines appears to be a monumental implosion."

Huckabee explained at the press conference, according to CBS News, “We prepared it, sent it to the stations, supposed to start running at noon today. This morning, I ordered my staff to pull the ad; I told them I do not want it to be run. If it was run at all, it would be until the stations pulled it off their schedules. And we are now committed, from now through the rest of the caucuses, that we will run only the ads that talk about why I should be president, and not why Mitt Romney should not."

"I know that some are up saying, well did you really have an ad? Well, I’m going to show you the ad. You’ll get the chance to find out,” he continued as the room erupted in laughter.

The full ad here.

The Caucusgoers' Lament

Get out of our town,

Get out of my face.

You barged into our home.

Your political race.

Those are words you don't typically hear on the streets of Des Moines, where most residents are happy to talk to the horde of outsiders who have descended on the city for Thursday's caucus. But a new music video is proof positive that the voting is coming not a moment too soon. Even midwestern warmth has its limits.

Jason Walsmith of the Des Moines group The Nadas and Kyle Munson, a reporter for the Des Moines Register, created the video, "Get Outta Our Town (Caucus Lament)." Walsmith was a guest today on NPR's "Day to Day," and his band is sure to play the song at a New Year's Eve performance.

Perhaps the new found attention will help them manage to get a good table at some local restaurant. They've long been booked by New Year's revelers and politicos.

As Walsmith sings,

All the restaurants are all full.

You can't find a seat.

You got to be a senator

To find a bite to eat.

The MySpace Race

Why wait until Thursday for the first votes to come in? MySpace holds its first online presidential primary on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the results posted on Thursday in the hours before the Iowa caucus.

The "virtual primary," as it is being called, will start at 3:01 a.m. EST on Tuesday, and polls will close at 11:59 p.m. EST on Wednesday.

Votes will be gathered online at the MySpace Impact Channel, (http://impact.myspace.com).

The vote is the latest effort in the online community to play a significant role in the election.

MySpace has teamed with MTV in hosting presidential forums. YouTube has co-hosted presidential debates with CNN. And on Saturday, Facebook co-hosts a presidential debate in New Hampshire with ABC News.

New Year's Resolve

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

Much of the nation's political media and (what seems like) all of its politicians will ring in the New Year in Des Moines, Iowa. One of the top spots: the Raucus Before the Caucus party at the Temple for the Performing Arts in downtown Des Moines. It's organized by Carrie Giddons, communications director of the Iowa Democratic  Party, and Mary Tiffany, who holds the same title for the Republican Party of Iowa,  with some 450 people expected, according to ABC News. Some 2,000 journalists are staked out in the city for the final days before the start of voting.

First Guest: Mike Huckabee will be a guest on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" on Wednesday, one of the first guests on the show's return that night after going dark during the still-ongoing WGA strike. It's doubtful that any Democratic contenders will appear, as most have vowed not to cross picket likes.

Huckabee will join with Churck Norris for a rally on Tuesday at the Val Air Ballroom in Des Moines.

"Seinfeld" Speak: Is this the worst kind of attack? Huckabee is comparing Mitt Romney to George Costanza. This from Jake Tapper's Political Punch:

"Referring to the 6th season episode of Seinfeld, "The Beard," in which Jerry is coached by George as to how he can beat a lie detector test (in order to maintain a claim that he had never watched "Melrose Place"), Huckabee's campaign said that the Romney standard for truth-telling is comparable to Costanza's memorable advice that closes this scene, from the February 9, 1995 episode:

JERRY: So George, how do I beat this lie detector?

GEORGE: I'm sorry, Jerry I can't help you.

JERRY: Come on, you've got the gift. You're the only one that can help me.

GEORGE: Jerry, I can't. It's like saying to Pavarotti, "Teach me to sing like you."

JERRY: All right, well I've got to go take this test. I can't believe I'm doing this.

GEORGE: Jerry, just remember. It's not a lie... if you believe it."

Biden's "West Wing" Star: Martin Sheen was forced to cancel appearances with Bill Richardson, but Joe Biden got the aid of another "West Wing" star: Richard Schiff.  He campaigned with Biden over the weekend.

"I don't care what CNN says, I don't care what Fox News says, or the New York Times," Schiff said, according to the Des Moines Register. "There's one candidate who makes sense, who's going to take over the office, can take action and doesn't have to spend two or three years learning how to be president."

Oliver Stone's Mission

Oliver Stone is in the Colombian city of Villavicencio this weekend as part of a mission to retrieve three hostages held for years by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, the AP reports.

FARC is classified as a terrorist organization by the United States.

"I have no illusions about the FARC, but it looks like they are a peasant army fighting for a decent living," Stone said in an interview with The Associated Press at his hotel bar. "And here, if you fight, you fight to win."

Stone and an international delegation planned to fly to the country's eastern jungles to retrieve the captives: former congresswoman Consuelo Gonzalez, Clara Rojas and her young son Emmanuel, who was fathered by one of her guerrilla captors.

"No, I'm not worried," Stone told the AP. "The FARC knows there would be universal condemnation if they did that."

The mission is led by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, whom Stone called "a great man."

A Bloomberg Run

We may know who will be the nominees in each party by Feb. 5 --- or god forbid even sooner. But the dynamics of the race now look destined to be far from settled by that point.

Aides to New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg have been meeting with potential presidential campaign consultants in recent weeks,  according to sources, raising the prospects that he will pursue an independent bid for the White House.

And the story gained further steam today when it was reported that Bloomberg would join Democratic and Republican party elder statesmen at the University of Oklahoma in a conference on ending partisan gridlock. It sounds a bit similar to a USC Annenberg School of Communication event last summer in which Bloomberg and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger were keynote speakers. On the way home from the event, Bloomberg announced that he was switching his party affiliation from Republican to independent.

Sam Waterston, the spokesman for Unity08, the group pushing for a bipartisan ticket in 2008, told the New York Times that Bloomberg has been mentioned most often as a prospective nominee.

“If he formally embraced Unity08’s principle goals of a bipartisan, nonpartisan, post-partisan ticket — which he’s almost in a position to do all by himself, having been a Democrat, a Republican and now an independent — and of an administration dedicated to ending partisanship within itself and in Washington, then it’s hard to think of anyone better placed to win Unity08’s support if he sought it,” Waterston said. “And, of course, there’s nothing that says Unity08 couldn’t draft him.”

Fred Thompson: "Not Interested"?

Fred Thompson is either (a) very, very crafty in running a kind of anti-campaign campaign, i.e. standout by not standing out; or (b) he's waiting to be drafted into a presidential race that he's already in.

CNN reports that Fred Thompson told a voter today in Iowa that he's "not particularly interested in running for president."

"But I think I’d make a good president," Thompson continued. "I have the background, capability, and concern to do this and I’m doing it for the right reasons.”

Thompson is in the midst of a bus tour throughout the state that is meant to shore up his support. But it so far seems to have been upstaged by the Huckabee-Romney race for the top spot and an insurgent John McCain.

But Thompson's expectations are now so low --- compare it to  his poll position last summer --- that a third place finish would be considered somewhat of a victory.

Update: Via National Review, here's the full transcript of what Thompson said.

And Thompson also said, "Nowadays, the process has become much more important than I think it used to be.

"I don't know if they ever asked George Washington a question like this. I don't know if they ever asked Dwight D. Eisenhower a question like this. Nowadays it's all about fire in the belly. I'm not sure that in the world we live in today, it's a terribly good thing for a president to have too much fire in his belly.

"I approach life differently than a lot of people. People, I guess, are wondering how I've been as successful as I've been in everything I've done. I've won two races in Tennessee by twenty points in a state Bill Clinton carried twice. I had never run for office before. I've never had an acting lesson, and I guess that's obvious. (laughter). When I did it, I did it. It wasn't just a lark. Anything worth doing is worth doing well. I've always been a little more laid back than most. I like to say I'm only consumed by very few things, and politics is not one of them. The welfare of my country, and my kids and grandkids, growing up, is one of them." (applause)

Mellencamp Stumps for Edwards

John Mellencamp will perform at a rally for John Edwards on Wednesday, the last day of campaigning before the Iowa caucus.

The campaign, in a press release, said that Edwards and Mellencamp are longtime friends, having each grown up in small towns.

The "This is Our Country" rally on Wednesday night will take place at the Val Air Ballroom in West Des Moines.

Campaigns are deploying big names whenever they can across the state. Martin Sheen will campaign for Bill Richardson Sunday and Monday, and Bill Clinton campaigns in a number of towns for Hillary Clinton tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is dispatching a number of surrogates today across Iowa, including Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, Obama's wife Michelle, and Brandon Routh, the star of the latest "Superman" movie.

Update: Due to a bad cold, Sheen was forced to cancel his appearances.

Airwave Bombardment

Iowans are seeing an unprecedented number of political ads on TV. Very few commercial breaks go by without at least one 30-second spot from the candidates, and the flurry of blurbs will only get worse as caucus day approaches.

In Iowa asked many different people which ads were standing out --- and most were hard pressed to name even one. But on the good side, they were generally appreciative that the candidates commercial spots this holiday season are largely free of negative campaigning.

Patrick Healy of the New York Times writes that candidates are spending three times as much money on the airwaves and over the Internet compared to 2004. (President Bush, however, faced little opposition in the GOP caucus).

Here are the stats: "The Democrats are spending by far the most on television advertising here, and smashing records in the process. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois has spent the most, at $8.3 million, Mrs. Clinton has spent $6.5 million, and Mr. Edwards, of North Carolina, has spent $2.7 million, according to an analysis by CMAG, a firm that tracks political advertising spending. Over the last week, Democratic candidates combined have spent at least $565,000 on television advertising, for a total of $23.7 million this year. In the 2004 race, Democratic candidates set a record by spending a combined $9.1 million for the entire campaign in Iowa.

"And the number of advertisements has increased accordingly: they have run 44,600 times in Iowa this cycle, compared with a total of 28,054 four years ago."

Clinton has bought ad time on every 6 p.m. newscast on  Jan. 2, the night before the caucus, so she can run a two-minute spot.  But ABC News reports that Obama has tried to counter by buying two- to five- minutes of time in the same period, so he could address voters live, but local stations are having trouble coming up with the inventory.

Martin Sheen to Campaign for Richardson

"The West Wing" star and longtime activist will stump for Bill Richardson on Sunday and Monday, the campaign said today.

Sheen recently endorsed Richardson and co-hosted a fund-raiser for him at the Bel-Air home of Lee Iacocca.

"Martin is used to backing the underdog in the fight, and I am confident that his participation will put the exclamation point on my grassroots campaign and help me finish very strongly in Iowa," Richardson said in a statement.

He added, "I hope that I can serve as many terms in the White House that his characters have."

On Sunday, Sheen will appear with Richardson in Des Moines, and later in the day at an event in Fort Dodge. He'll appear the next morning at a campaign event in Ames.

In 2004, Sheen campaigned in Iowa for Howard Dean.

Edwards' Call

DECORAH, Iowa --- All morning, campaigns in Iowa scrambled to respond to the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan. Joseph Biden held a press conference. Bill Richardson called for the country's president, Pervez Musharraf, to step down. Hillary Clinton shared personal remembrances of Bhutto.

And just as pundits were predicting who caucus goers would turn to in the period of instability --- perhaps candidates of experience Clinton or John McCain --- John Edwards actually got on the phone with Musharraf, speaking to the embattled leader as his campaign bus lumbered its way through one small town to another.

"I urged him to continue the democratization process," Edwards said to a crowd packed into an ampitheatre at Luther College in Decorah, a riverfront community in northeast Iowa. He said that he also urged Musharraf to allow independent investigators into the country.

"This is a time for America to be a strong and calming influence," he added, pacing back and forth in a tightly fit blue suit, sky-blue tie and hiking boots.

Will his phone call make a difference? It either showed Edwards' presidential chutzpah, or, to cynics, an act of political jockeying. As the race increasingly turned inward toward domestic issues in recent weeks, suddenly it is about foreign policy again. The chat with Musharraf undoubtedly helped him stand out on a day when just about the entire field has descended on Iowa with one week left to go before the caucus.

In fact, residents here are so bombarded with ads and phone calls and "messages" that it is hard to tell one from the other --- all are now promising "change," a buzzword repeated so many different times by candidates that it'd make for a good drinking game.

Earlier in the day, as Edwards was finishing up an appearance at a bar-restaurant, Mulligan's, in Waukon, Iowa, an elderly man exited the event shaking his head. A campaign worker asked if the man would sign up and caucus for him. He said no. "I haven't heard anything different," the man said.

But at the next event, the town hall meeting at Luther College, Edwards appeared a bit more energetic and emotional. Perhaps  amped up after talking to Musharraf, or from a sugar high after making a pit stop at a local fast food joint for a sundae (right), Edwards raised his voice a few octaves so everyone could hear his populist message.

Railing against lopsided CEO salaries, corporate greed and insurance and drug company influence, he told the crowd, "When will this stop? I'm telling you, this will stop when we stand up."

He cited Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman as three presidents who changed the system even though they were "vilified by corporate America."

He took aim at his two main rivals --- Hillary Clinton, for being beholden to these corporate interests; and Barack Obama, for living in the "fantasy" that "nice words and sitting at a table with them" will change anything.

"They will lose their power when we take their power from them," he said.

What is a bit surprising is that Edwards, whose appearance all but projects sunny disposition, sprinkles very little humor in his appearances. Gone are the celebrities --- Kevin Bacon and Bonnie Raitt and Jackson Browne, who campaigned with him in recent weeks. With just days to go, it is now serious business.

In fact, Edwards seemed a little irritated when a woman, after asking him a question, started snapping pictures of him. Politely, he told her it was hard to answer with a camera in his face.

No politician really is unpolished, and few are unscripted, but his effort at least appearing so played well in this room.

Among the possible converts was Renee Bay, an administration official at the college, who said that she plans to caucus for Mitt Romney but, should her candidate drop out, may eventually switch parties for Edwards.

What resonated were his vows to fight powerful interests, i.e. the little guy vs. the corporate behemoth. And that could prove surprisingly strong in rural areas of the state, where Edwards is said to have a particularly adept organization.

"I like what he says about big companies and corporation, and moving jobs overseas, really troubles me," Bay said. "I didn't hear him say anything about immigration and that is a big issue for me. But other things that he said make me want to learn more about him as a candidate."

No one asked him about Pakistan, other than a few journalists at a later press conference.

Then, he was asked whether his phone call could add a little foreign policy gravitas to his campaign. Edwards said, "Oh, I don't know. I think the most important thing is to understand what is happening and the complex nature of the problems there, and to be visionary about what America should be doing. What we need to be providing is stability and calmness and strength, principal strength."

Closing Statements

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa --- "You know what I got for Christmas?" Barack Obama told a crowd of about 500 people at Newman Catholic High School this morning. "Eight hours sleep. It was outstanding.”

Later in the day, Bill Clinton, campaigning for his wife, sounded a similar note at Muscatine, Iowa, gathering. On Christmas night, he said, "Hillary and I got our best night's sleep in six months."

Candidates ended a brief holiday break  and got back on the campaign trail, in the final sprint in which they are trying to seal the deal with the state's caucus goers.

To survey some of the action, I drove down from Minneapolis today, and stated with Obama's morning appearance at the high school gym.

Obama's crowd clapped, and some cheered, but it was otherwise a more subdued response than I have seen at other events.  Obama went into more specific points about what he would do on some of the bread and butter issues like fixing the prescription drug plan and providing tuition tax credits, as well as requiring his cabinet members to hold regular town hall meetings. Noting that other candidates also are calling for "change" --- "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery" --- he cast himself as the most proven to carry it out.

"When you make a decision to caucus, you’ve got to ask yourself, who’s been about change their whole lives?” Obama said. "Who's made the choices that would indicate their passion for working Americans, their hopes and their dreams?"

And in what was perhaps a reference to Clinton, he said,  "If they have been secretive in the past, they will be secretive as president."

Obama asked who in the crowd was still undecided, and about a dozen or two raised their hands. And he also asked that if any were planning to caucus for another candidate, "we still want to be your second choice." 

Hillary and Bill Clinton made a joint appearance in Mount Pleasant, but because of time constraints I could only make it to the former president's appearance in Muscatine. About an hour southeast of Cedar Rapids, the small town already has been showered by presidential contenders, and surrogate-in-chief Bill Clinton was making his second appearance in the city at a local high school.

"We don't have a lot of margin for error," Clinton said, in making the case for Hillary. "We need to get the show on the road again."

While he has been criticized for some campaign missteps, he didn't show any signs of retreating from the hard sell to a room of potential caucusgoers.

He refrained from attacking other candidates, saying, "I'm not against anybody."

But he said that they would be deciding "which of these candidates is the best candidate to be the best president on the very first day."

Speaking to a crowd of about 300 that filled an octogon-shaped auditorium, Clinton went into often minute detail about his wife's plans for health care, education, the environment and the economy, effortlessly rattling off numbers and figures and stats.  A comment about the Blackwater contractors in Iraq came with a comparison costs of private contractors to military servicemen. In another case, he cited Safeway's efforts at promoting non-smoking among its employees, with its health care costs "going down 15%."

In fact, his efforts at promoting his wife as an "agent of positive change" continued well beyond the 6:30 p.m. end of the event. As the clock neared 7 p.m., he was still working the rope line, stopping to answer questions, pose for pictures and argue the merits of his wife's health care plan in great detail. And when one woman asked him about autism, he went into specifics about the disease and vowed to send her more information.

Finally, an aide pulled him away.

Obama in Mason City, where a veteran asks him about health care.

Heartland Heart for Hollywood

MASON CITY, Iowa --- When Barack Obama took questions from a town hall audience of about 500 people on Wednesday, he more than likely didn't expect the question from Travis Fischer, 23.

The gist of the query was, What would he do to get the producers to really negotiate with the writers?

Obama at first looked confused. After all, other questions were about free trade and farming, not an ongoing labor dispute some 1,500 miles away.

"The writers strike, in Hollywood," Fischer said to Obama.

Obama paused for a second, then said, "Well, for one thing, I have not been on a TV show with a writer at all.

"The problem is that labor in general, all across the country, is under attack."

Obama continued, "I am respecting the writers strike and hope they get it resolved. As President, I would like to send a clear message to workers across the country that it is a good thing to join a union."

Fischer, who runs a newspaper in nearby Thornton, Iowa, says that he has been following the strike via the United Hollywood website --- and sees it as a case of management trying to undercut labor.

"I have been following the writers strike on United Hollywood and it's really disturbing how it's going," he said. "I don't even understand how it's gone on this long. I want to know why they are allowed to do this and I want to know what Obama wants to do about it."

Fischer, who plans to caucus for Obama on Jan. 3, admitted that Obama looked a bit "startled" when he asked the question, but seemed satisfied with the candidate's answer, which was to paint a larger picture of the problem.

Obama went on to criticize the Bush administration's anti-labor stances, and to equate the WGA with the labor efforts in the service industry.

"Unions provide a countervailing force," he said. "It means that workers will get a little bit more of the pie. And that is especially important in the service industry, which the writers are a part of. More and more jobs are going to be in the service industry, they are not going to be in manufacturing, even if we stop some of the shifting of jobs overseas. Our nation is going to reduce the number of people who have to work in factories. So we have to make sure that people in the service industry have a foothold in the economy."

Christmas, Nixon Style

Via Andrew Sullivan's Atlantic Monthly blog comes this CBS News clip from 1971. But it also has a commentary on Christmas from Eric Severeid, a reminder of the great writing that used to be the norm on network newscasts.

Yuletide Greetings

On this Christmas day, wishing a great and wonderful holiday to all.

Christmas Eve

Not a holiday goes by in my family where at least a mention isn't made of Christmas Eve, 1972.

Our holidays are steeped in tradition, as a the cliche goes, and much of it is a bit irreverent. But the holiday from 35 years ago stands out because it is the only one that has deviated even slightly from the normal game plan of the night of St. Nick.

Just days earlier, President Nixon had just ordered "Operation Linebacker II," a.k.a. the "Christmas bombings," to force the North Vietnamese back to the bargaining table. According to press accounts, the aerial bombardment represented the largest heavy bomber strikes launch by the Air Force since World War II, and the administration's promises that "peace was at hand" gave way to fears that just the opposite was true. It inspired a fresh wave of protests.

Among them was a candlelight vigil on Christmas Eve, at the Old Federal Building in downtown Minneapolis. I was only six, but the image is still vivid of my parents and five or six of my siblings joining with about two dozen others and marching in a circle each with candles in our hands. Back then, I had a strange fascination with flame, so the candle itself kept me from complaining that we weren't at home opening gifts. My brothers undoubtedly shared these same desires, but my parents were insistent that they be there. They were of the World War II generation, and my dad and his law partner, both veterans of that war, were early Vietnam war opponents. (And, my father, now 87, and his law partner, 92, are strident opponents of the current war in Iraq.)

So for an hour or so, with temperatures in the teens, we went around that oval over and over again --- and as a kid the repetition of faces was somewhat amusing. There may have been songs, but there were few chants.

Other than knowing that a war was going on, my parents wanting it to end, or my older brothers not wanting to get drafted, I understood very little of what was actually going on. It was a complicated end to a complex war. The next month the Paris agreements were signed. I was told that the war was over.

As hard as it is not to draw parallels to now and then, given that even in this year's election race, issues continue to be framed  against that experience. Unlike that Christmas Eve, it is difficult to believe that the war in Iraq is on the cusp of coming to an end, that lasting "peace is at hand." On this holiday, we all hold a candle that it soon will be.

And One More Holiday Greeting...

It's from Fred Thompson, but with no Fred Thompson. Instead, it is a tribute to the troops on the holidays.

Which ad was most effective? On "Meet the Press," the consensus among Tim Russert, John Harwood and Chuck Todd was that it was Huckabee's, not only because it was first but because it is one that people are still talking about.

The War Over "Charlie Wilson"

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

"Charlie Wilson's War" debuts this weekend, and while its box office prospects are uncertain in a year in which moviegoers have shunned seemingly any type of war pic, it's generated considerable interest in Washington. How true is it? The Politico's Jeffrey Ressner looks at the original script of "Charlie Wilson" and discovers that many scenes ultimately were cut, including some that took some dramatic liberties. Included: Many references to 9/11. In addition, there was considerable pressure from the real-life Julia Roberts character, Joanne Herring, to tidy up her image. The Politico's Helena Andrews interviews Wilson's colleagues in Congress, and they doubt that such a figure could get away with his tactics again.

The Song Is Mine: The Wall Street Journal's John Jurgenson writes about the increasing use of music from major artists at campaign events.

"Using popular songs for political purposes is a twist on a tactic that goes back to George Washington. The increasing use of such songs is an outgrowth of the fact that, in an age when voters are pulled by a growing number of media sources, politicians are looking for tools to help them cut through the clutter. There are trade-offs, however, including potentially loaded lyrics and the chance of artist backlash. John McCain had been playing "I Won't Back Down," but rocker Tom Petty asked him to do just that and stop using the tune for his campaign."

And, I'm in Minnepolis (with a fresh blanket of snow) for the weekend --- that's why there were no posts yesterday, as I was braving the airports. There will be posts through the holidays.

Battle of the Attack Sites

My guess is that most voters, save for the political junkies, will just start to tune out come this weekend.

The Clinton and Obama campaigns have been at it for much of the day --- not the candidates themseleves but their handlers.

The latest volleys are taking place on the Web, where the Clinton camp has registered Votingpresent.com and Votingpresent.org to note the instances where Obama has voted "present" instead of "yes" or "no" on controversial legislation.

The Clinton campaign even organized a conference call call on Wednesday with three members of Congress to talk about Obama's voting record.

But it didn't take too long for the Obama camp to return the fire, registering a domain name desperatehillaryattacks.com, according to ABC News.

Meanwhile, here's a rating of the campaign holiday ads.

McCain's Christmas

Each new campaign holiday ad one ups the other in their ability to interweave a campaign's themes.

John McCain's holiday ad, "My Christmas Story," invokes religious imagery, but this doesn't require any poses before a Christmas tree. Rather, it tells a story of spending a Christmas in a Viet Cong POW camp and having a compassionate guard tracing a cross in the sand.

Return of Political Comedy

Comedy Central announced that "The Daily Show" and "The Colbert Report" will return on Jan. 7, having been on hiatus due to the writers strike just when the going got good in the presidential race.

In fact, it seems like a light year away when both shows went dark on Nov. 5. Colbert had just dropped out of the presidential race --- remember that? --- and Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani were still the undisputed front runners.

With the absence of Leno, Letterman and other late-night shows, political humor has been all but missing from the TV landscape. Nothing on Pat Robertson endorsing Giuliani, Hillary's helicopter and Ron Paul's blimp, Barack Obama's kindergarten record, or the return of Alan Keyes (although the latter is humor in and of itself).

It should be noted that Colbert and Jon Stewart will be returning sans writers (if the strike is still on), so they'll certainly be under added scrutiny on just what they come up with.

To fill in the gap, Comedy Central has been promoting its Indecision2008 blog, including today's post on Fred Thompson.

Hillary's Holiday Ad

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

Hillary Clinton's Christmas ad is a bit more cinematic than the others, but definitely wonkish. The message: She'll give the gift of things like "alternative energy," "universal pre-K" and "bring troops home." (And where are Bill and Chelsea?) In that regard, save for promising fruitcakes for everyone, she falls in line with one of Rudy Giuliani's ad, in which he pledged to give the gift of such things as "strict constructionist judges."

How about we just leave it to an iPhone?

What's interesting is that as the week goes one, the holiday ads have gone from straight out Christmas greetings to holiday-themed policy pitches. It's a distinction that Mike Huckabee has tried to exploit as Mitt Romney continues his attacks. Huckabee tells ABC News, "I don't plan to fight with him. He's throwing punches and I'm saying, 'Merry Christmas.' "

"Because most people go to the mailbox and they want some nice comfortable Christmas cards that say, 'Peace on Earth, Goodwill towards Man,' not 'Here's a hammer, let's crack this fellow's kneecaps.' I mean, it's unbecoming."

Meanwhile, save for what looks for a short on-screen blizzard, which he has had to endure several times in his campaign, Joe Biden's "January Night" ad doesn't get at all sentimental but spells credentials for out his plan for Iraq.

Donor List: The New York Times has compiled the first comprehensive list to donors to the Clinton Foundation. Among the contributors: Steve Bing, who contributed more than $10 million in stock in 2005.

Where's Fred?

What happened to Fred Thompson?

His presumed candidacy was billed as Ronald Reagan redux. When he got a late start in the race, with a few stumbles out of the gate, he was this year's Wesley Clark. And now at the low double digits in some polls, he's all but competing with "Not sure."

In fact, the rise of Mike Huckabee can in part be attributed to the fall of Thompson in the polls.

Thompson, however, is on a 15-day bus tour to 50 or more Iowa cities. He's hoping to build on a standout performance at last week's Des Moines Register debate. Dana Bash of CNN writes, "To watch his campaign is to witness a candidate trying to shake the rap that he has no fire in his belly."

He may start a rise --- but it will have to be fast and furious.

When I was in Iowa recently, journalists were almost in insurrection against his campaign, primarily because of Thompson's penchant for dodging the travelling press and ducking out the back door at campaign events. That's a surprising role for such a media-bred figure, and Thompson himself admits that expectations may have hurt him.

"I think sometimes the media had the notion that because I'd been in the movie business that I'd be well-scripted, I'd be slick, that I'd be perfect. And it was a standard nobody else was held to, but I think I was held to it," he told CNN.

But his style has been so laconic that it makes some wonder whether he actually wants the job. On a bus tour on Tuesday, he cancelled plans for a Main Street stroll down the streets of Waverly, Iowa, in what Roger Simon of The Politico writes only feeds into the rap that's dogged him throughout the race: He's lazy.

"Caucus! The Musical"

Brave, politically minded souls from Hollywood will be winging it to Des Moines in the coming week for the waning days of the Iowa campaign, and they may be surprised to know that they will be there in time for a premiere.

"Caucus! The Musical" will debut on Dec. 27 at the State Historical Museum Theatre. The tuner is a riff on everything that anyone ever thought about Iowa's exalted status these days, what with the next president of the United States camped out there for the past six months or so. As playwright, composer and lyricist Robert John Ford notes, "Iowans have become accustomed to having future Presidents of the United States serve them pancakes, plow their corn fields, and attend their children’s little league games."

In the irreverent production, the national media pegs an Iowa farmer and his family as "typical caucusgoers," and campaigns soon realize that they must do anything, even to the point of desperation, to win their vote.

Even though the characters --- played by a team of local performers --- are all fictional, there are certainly shades of this year's field: A woman candidate who has questions planted in an audience; another candidate who seems to flip flop through the issues. Going on through this is the spectacle of gay marriages in Iowa, and an endless war overseas.

Ford says that he actually conceived of the play before the last caucus in 2004 (a premiere reading was performed at the Des Moines Playhouse that year), when he got an up-close-and-personal view of politics. Born and raised in the state, he moved to San Diego in the 1980s to work at the Old Globe Theater, but returned to Iowa five years ago to pursue theater in a smaller market.

He's since found success as the author of several plays, including "Six-on-Six," a musical take on girls' basketball in Iowa; and "The World's Largest Aluminum Foil Ball," about what happens when a midwest roadside attraction is listed as a terrorist target.

What influenced his ideas for "Caucus" were the one-on-one interactions that residents have with the candidates. "Not only do we expect it, we demand it in many ways," he says. "It does make a huge difference."

He cites his own experience. In the lead up to the 2004 caucus, he at first supported Howard Dean, but says that when he met him he "had a very cold connection." Then he was impressed by another candidate he saw in person, John Edwards, and thought, "This is a person who I will vote for."

(Ford says that this year, he's been leaning toward Clinton, but "If I voted idealistically, I'd vote for Kucinich.")

It goes without saying that Iowans enjoy such spoils of attention this time of year. The Obama campaign asked Ford's cast perform before the big Oprah Winfrey-Barack Obama event at Hy-Vee Hall, but they declined. It was their only day off after weeks of rehearsals.

Although the show's opening, two days after Christmas, would seem to be an odd time to debut anything, it's not in Des Moines. The city will be populated with political media, strategists, donors, consultants, campaign workers and politicians.

And, knowing that they'll all clear out come Jan. 4, Ford has adapted his play for New Hampshire, "The Primary Primary!" That day, it starts at the New Hampshire Theater Project in Portsmouth. The state's voters go to the polls on Jan. 8.

More Holiday Cards

John Edwards introduced a holiday ad today, a call to end poverty and homelessness. "This is the season of miracles, of faith and love. So let us promise together, you will never be forgotten again. We see you, we hear you, and we will speak for you."

Man of the Year

Time's choice is Vladimir Putin --- coincidentally our cover story in weekly Variety this week --- and it drew an immediate reaction from Mitt Romney.

"Disgusting," he told Glenn Beck on his radio show.

"You know, he imprisoned his political opponents. There have been a number of highly suspicious murders," Romney said. "He has squelched public dissent and free press. And to suggest that someone like that is the Man of the Year is really disgusting. I'm just appalled."

"Clearly General Petraeus is the person, or one of a few people, who would certainly merit that designation," he added.

John McCain wasn't as appalled ---  it is just a magazine promotional stunt. And last year the choice was "You."

But he too made sure to recognize Petraeus, and make the point that the surge is working.

“I noticed that Time Magazine made President Putin the Time Magazine ‘Man of the Year,’” McCain said, according to NBC. “I understand that probably, but my man of the year is one Gen. David Petraeus, our general who has brought success in Iraq.”

The choice of Putin, however, is a welcome return to a singular figure, rather than the concepts like "The Whistleblowers" or Planet of the Year. What most people forget is that the editors also face the prospect of choosing the person who has the greatest impact on the world that year --- so it naturally isn't always going to be a saint. The last "disgusting" figure was probably Ayatollah Khomeni in 1979.

Candidates & Infidelity

As candidates try to exude their warm image, Katie Couric presents the latest in her series "Primary Questions," which seem to get the biggest headlines when she delves into personal lives as opposed to some issue.

The issue tonight: Infidelity. Should it affect how people vote? Obviously, Rudy Giuliani has the most personal perspective, and there's quite a contrast between him and Mike Huckabee.

Here's some highlights:

Couric: "Harry Truman once said, "A man not honorable in his marital relations is not usually honorable in any other." Some people say they don't feel comfortable supporting someone who has not remained faithful to his or her spouse. Can you understand their reservations?"

Giuliani: "Sure, I can. Absolutely. You know, they look the every single part of us. And the only -- only thing I can say to people is I'm not perfect, you know? And I've made mistakes in my life. And -- and that - not -- not just in that area. In other areas and I try to learn from it. I try to -- I feel sorry about them. I try to -- I try to learn from them so I don't repeat them.

Sometimes I even repeat them and you -- you try again. I mean, you -- you -- so -- I have a -- maybe a more generous view of human beings and a more generous view of life. I mean, it comes from growing up as a Catholic. I mean, we're all sinners. We're all struggling. We're all trying hard. We ask for forgiveness, and then we try to improve ourselves again. And I've -- relate to other people that way. Relate to the world that way."

Here's Huckabee:

"If you violate the promise that you made to the one person on earth to whom you're supposed to be closest to, and this vow was made in front of your families, your closest friends, and God, and you don't keep that, then can we trust you to keep a promise that you made to people you don't even know?"

And Hillary Clinton.

Clinton: "Well, I can certainly understand why some people would feel that way, and ... that is their perfect right to do so. But I think ... would be a tough standard for most of American history to be able to meet, when we look at people who have made a big difference in our country.

I think there's more to someone's honor and integrity, and to their public service. I think sometimes we confuse the private and the public in ways that are not necessarily useful. So, of course, it's a deeply personal matter that I take personally. But I think on the public stage, there are a number of people who have represented our country, led our country, accomplished great achievements on behalf of our country who might have some challenges in their personal life, but have made a great contribution."

And John McCain.

"You and I know that there have been some leaders in American history -- latest information about Franklin Delano Roosevelt. I happen to still think that Franklin Delano Roosevelt was an important president at a time in our history when we needed some courage. And so, it's -- that's just frankly, a judgment that I leave to others."

CA Field Poll: Clinton 36, Obama 22, Edwards 13

The latest Field Poll shows some narrowing in the California primary --- the margin between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama has narrowed to 14 points, from 25 in late October.

Obama's numbers rose to 22% from 20%. Instead, it seems that there are more voters declaring themselves as "undecided," which makes sense as the primary date approaches.

Obama has a more positive image among non-partisans and Republicans, but Democratic voters think by a wide margin that Clinton has a better shot at winning in November.

The full results here.

Sugar and Spice

Updated

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

With Mitt Romney welling up, Hillary Clinton humanized and candidates racing to get holiday messages out, suddenly the campaigns are softening as if to let the early state electorate not completely get turned off by the bitterness of the race.

In a web ad unveiled today, Rudy Giuliani is dressed in a red sweater vest, sitting before a Christmas tree, as he runs through a list of holiday wishes.

"I really hope that all of the presidential candidates can just get along," he says.

Then, Santa appears and starts to chuckle. "I was with you up until that last one."

Giuliani throws up his hands and says, "Can't have everything!"

Then there is another ad unveiled today by the Obama campaign, a straight-out wish for a Merry Christmas where he sits before a tree with wife Michelle and his two daughters --- sans any ironic references. "Merry Christmas!" says Malia Obama. "Happy holidays!" says Sasha Obama.

Then there's this Ron Paul ad, with a choir singing "Deck the Halls."

Coupled with yesterday's Mike Huckabee holiday greeting, you'd think there was good cheer all around.

But by midday Tuesday, Huckabee was forced to answer questions about whether his overtly religious ad contained a secret floating cross. And Obama's ad today already has drawn some nasty comments about Muslims in America --- some were deleted from the campaign website --- and whether the ad is an attempt to overcome veiled attacks on his background. (Bob Kerry: "Barack Hussein Obama"). And it didn't take too long, however, for a parody ad to appear --- Ron Paul with Mike Huckabee's voice attached.

It seems Santa --- chuckling at the thought of some kind of a holiday truce --- was right.

Clinton Double Standard: Howard Kurtz explores whether Hillary Clinton is getting a bum rap from the press.

He writes in the Washington Post, "Clinton's senior advisers have grown convinced that the media deck is stacked against them, that their candidate is drawing far harsher scrutiny than Barack Obama. And at least some journalists agree.

"She's just held to a different standard in every respect," says Mark Halperin, Time's editor at large. "The press rooted for Obama to go negative, and when he did he was applauded. When she does it, it's treated as this huge violation of propriety." While Clinton's mistakes deserve full coverage, Halperin says, "the press's flaws -- wild swings, accentuating the negative -- are magnified 50 times when it comes to her. It's not a level playing field."

Hillary Hit Job: "The first and last word in what the Clintons want America to forget!" Citzens United, the group headed by David Bossie, is getting ready to debut the anti-Hillary pic. 

Not Happy: Sidney Blumenthal is executive producer of Alex Gibney's upcoming doc "Taxi to the Dark Side," and chides the MPAA for banning the poster for the pic, which traces the pattern of torture practice from Afghanistan's Bagram prison to Abu Ghraib to Guantanamo Bay. He writes, "This acclaimed film, which has already won numerous festival awards, including best documentary at the Tribeca Film Festival, and is shortlisted for the Academy Award, is the single most important movie of 2008, the campaign year." As Variety's Anne Thompson reports, the MPAA deemed the poster not suitable for children.

Ken Burns Endorses Obama

In a conference call today arranged by the Obama campaign, filmmaker Ken Burns says he was going to stay neutral in this presidential race. That is, until last week, when Clinton surrogates brought up Obama's past admissions of drug use as a youth.

According to MSNBC, he said of Hillary Clinton, “I am really disappointed just in the tone that the campaign has taken on their part. I think she’s getting some bad advice, and I’m sure she’ll clean up the act, but it was time for some real change.”

Burns, who most recently made "The War" for PBS, says that the negative tone "compelled" him to go public.

“If you were a political pundit in the 1850s, you would be certain that what the country needed was an old pro like Clay, or Webster, or Calhoun,” Burns said. “In fact, what the country actually needed was a relatively -- or so it seemed -- inexperienced young, wiry figure from Illinois. And I’m willing to accept that at least in this case history does repeat itself.”

He also praised Obama's opposition to the war in Iraq, and said that he has been "attracted from the beginning to his authenticity," he said. The nation, he said, needs "someone able to dream and suggest a future without being tied to the past."

Survey USA: Obama Gains in California

Barack Obama now trails Hillary Clinton by 19 points, compared to 37 points two months ago, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely voters in the Golden State.

More surprising is the the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani still leads, but his margin has thinned to 8 points. Mike Huckabee made huge gains to take the No. 2 spot with 20% of the vote. Huckabee's support was just 8% six weeks ago.

In fact, it presumably spells out the risks of Giuliani's strategy of concentrating on the Feb. 5 cluster called "super duper Tuesday" rather than campaigning aggressively in the early states. But he has to make sure he has a so-called "firewall" in Florida (which votes Jan. 29), California and New York to buffer any losses before then.

"If you run the last election, you're going to lose this one. You've got to figure this one out. The person who wins this is going to be the one who did the best job of figuring this new one out," Giuliani told ABC recently.

The gulf between Obama and Clinton is still large --- she has 49% and he has 30%. But according to the survey, he has made gains among male voters, while she leads 4-1 among younger voters. They are tied among the youngest voters. Edwards. meanwhile, trails at 14%.

The complete results here.

Magic Moments

Hillary and Bill Clinton launched their tour of Iowa with Magic Johnson today in a grocery store, but its was the former president who was mobbed by shoppers, cashiers, even "Entertainment Tonight."

At an impromptu press conference, according to the Washington Post, Hillary Clinton was asked if she'd hit her stride.

“You mean I got my groove back? I feel great,” she said. “I just sense the momentum and energy that my campaign is generating.”

Meanwhile, John Edwards campaigned with Bonnie Raitt and Jackson Browne on the trail with him in New Hampshire today. Browne, by the way, had backed Obama but switched when Edwards made his position on nuclear energy more clear, according to the AP.

"I like Obama, I like Obama very much," Browne said today. "I would rather see Edwards president, to tell you the truth."

Here's a clip from Edwards tour with Raitt and Browne last month in Iowa.

The Big Blitz

Updated

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

Here's further proof that ad spending on this presidential race will shatter all records. According to Time, $17.3 million has been spent on political ads in Iowa, compared with just $2.3 million for the same period in 2004. "It's kind of a perfect storm of advertising demand on a supply that doesn't change," says a sales manager at a Cedar Rapids ABC affiliate.

Obviously candidates have to distinguish themselves, and John Edwards does that this morning not with a spot but a trailer. Riffing on the overly heavy delivery of most movie trailers (In a world where corn grows tall and hope grows taller), his new short is an attempt to get Iowans out to caucus.

But the ad of the day goes to Mike Huckabee, who notes the preponderance of ads are making people tired then invokes the birth of Christ in a Christmas greeting.

No Rove Trove: Is Karl Rove's proposed memoir having trouble finding a publisher?

Big Gamble: Marc Cooper takes issue with Bill Clinton's charge that voting for Barack Obama would be "rolling the dice." In fact, in Vegas terms, it would be a very good bet, he writes on HuffingtonPost.

Walk Out: Keith Olbermann tells Bill Moyers that he almost walked out on MSNBC when they demanded that he run a Michael Savage commentary.

Huckabee's California Moment

Mike Huckabee was in Los Angeles today to appear on "Larry King Live," gain some California media exposure and make his rising poll position pay off: he raised money in Beverly Hills.

Huckabee was barely noticed when he came to Los Angeles in September at a fund-raiser at the Beverly Hills home of real estate magnate Fred Wehba and his wife, Suzi. (The family's holdings include the Watergate in D.C.). So he returned to their home on Green Acres Drive for a noontime event.

Huckabee tried to talk a holiday truce with his opponents, according to the AP.

"I think the country could use a little good will and peace on earth a little more than they can some tit for tat in the political arena," he said at a press conference.

Nevertheless, much of the questions from reporters were to get his response to attacks from rival campaigns. First and foremost was a new ad from Mitt Romney that claims Huckabee issued more than 1,033 pardons and commutations in his decade as governor.

"The difference between us is that I did something he never had to do. I carried out the death penalty 16 times, more than any other governor in my state's history," Huckabee said. "That's hardly soft on crime when you make that tough decision and actually carry it out."

Hillary Looks to Magic

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

Magic Johnson will hit the campaign trail for Hillary Clinton on Tuesday. He will travel to Davenport, Iowa with Bill Clinton, and then make a stop in Waterloo. Clinton will continue on to Hampton and Fort Dodge.

Meanwhile, John Edwards took Kevin Bacon along on the trail over the weekend. Bacon performed with his band at several stops, but admitted, "I'm no Oprah."

Shout Out: Andrew Ferguson of The Weekly Standard notes that this year marks the 25th anniversary of "The McLaughlin Group," which launched the era of modern political punditry. "As McLaughlin and his panelists became celebrities and grew rich from speaking engagements and road shows, punditry replaced reporting as the dearest aspiration of would-be journalists. Perhaps most important, antiestablishment conservatism became unignorable, for alone among the chat shows, the Group declined to treat right-wing ideas as though they were freakish anomalies smuggled into the capital by the Reaganite junta."

Woodstock Redux: The Clinton-backed Woodstock Museum may have a second chance at funding.

Another View of Romney

I'm several days late on this --- but it's another take on Mitt Romney's religion speech.

Lawrence O'Donnell --- the pundit/actor who is not a Mormon but who plays one on HBO's "Big Love," goes off on Romney's attempt to address the issue. (He elaborates in this Huffington Post column).

The church in 1978 lifted its ban on African Americans joining the priesthood. Romney appeared on "Meet the Press" today and his eyes filled with tears when talking about the church's discrimination against African Americans. "I was anxious to see a change in my church," he said.

“My view is that there’s no discrimination in the eyes of God. And I could not have been more pleased than to see the change that occurred.”

Romney and the Review

Rich Lowry, the editor of the National Review, says that their endorsement of Mitt Romney this week wasn't a unanimous decision of the editorial board, but it wasn't close, either.

"I don't want to say it was agonizing, but we have been as confused as many conservatives have," he says. "It really just forced us to go through the process that many voters will have to go through."

Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee, the editors write, "would pull apart the coalition from opposite ends: Giuliani alienating the social conservatives, and Huckabee the economic (and foreign-policy) conservatives."

The editors wrote, "Unlike some other candidates in the race, Romney is a full-spectrum conservative: a supporter of free-market economics and limited government, moral causes such as the right to life and the preservation of marriage, and a foreign policy based on the national interest."

Will it help boost Romney in the polls, or cause conservatives to at least give him a "second look," in Lowry's words? In a separate, syndicated column published on Friday, Lowry wrote that for the party to nominate Huckabee, rising in the polls, would amount to "an act of suicide." 

The Review's endorsement comes with continued volatility in the GOP race. A CBS News/New York Times poll this week confirmed what many suspected: Only 23 percent said they had made up their mind in the race, while 76 percent said it was too early to settle on one candidate.

The poll also showed that large numbers of GOP voters --- 45 percent --- still don't know that Romney is a Mormon. But among those who do, there seems to be some movement in his favor: 52 percent of GOP primary voters said most people they knew would vote for a Mormon, up from 36 percent in June. Although Romney gave a speech on religion last week, Lowry expects that his religion will continue to be an issue into the general election.

"It will be an issue all the way through November if he wins the nomination," Lowry says. "We think that is a mistake because he is not running for the seminary, he would be running the country."

More explicit have been the attacks that rivals of both parties have aimed at Romney for shifting his positions. The evidence often comes in the form of videos played on YouTube from his prior campaigns for the Massachusetts Senate in 1994 and the state's governorship in 2002.

"I think it is overplayed," Lowry says. "You can't deny it: Obviously he changed his position on some issues, including abortion...But the irony is that Huckabee is played as a purist, but he changed his position on issues like immigration and the Cuba embargo."

Nevertheless, Lowry says that Romney has had a "pretty strong foundation" on various issues and they consider him a "reliable conservative."

Can Romney survive if he loses Iowa? He's invested far more advertising time than any other candidate.

"It depends on the margin," Lowry says. "If he gets blown out, he's in trouble. If he loses narrowly, that is survivable."

Although Romney has drawn considerable support among California donors (including eBay's Meg Whitman and developer Rick Caruso), little has come from Hollywood per se.

Romney was the first of the GOP candidates to take aim at the content coming out of entertainment. In a campaign ad (below) from last spring, called "Ocean," Romney says that  "I'm deeply troubled by the culture that surrounds our kids today." "I'd like to see violence and sex on TV and in video games and movies." Should he be the nominee, such issues are bound to be resurrected for the general election. 

Then again, running as an outsider to Hollywood, the media and political elites can work in a candidates' favor. Just as George W. Bush's twangy cowboy image may have "fueled a lot of hatred of Bush" among political elites, Lowry says, the same may happen to Romney.

"Mitt Romney is one of the squarest candidates ever," he says. "He is kind of a gee whiz, jolly willakers kind of guy. There's not a lot of irony to him. He's someone 'The Daily Show' will satire."

 

Spielberg's Letter

Steven Spielberg sent a letter to Chinese president Hu Jintao, expressing dismay at the country's "silence in the wake" of Sudan's refusals to accept a deployment of peacekeepers to Darfur.

Although Spielberg doesn't mention the Olympics, in doubt is whether he will continue his role as artistic adviser to next summer's Games in Beijing.

Some Darfur activists, including actress Mia Farrow, have called for him to resign his role, as China has influence over Sudan as one of its leading trading partners.

Spielberg's letter does not mention his role in the Olympics, but his political representative, Andy Spahn, said that they "will address that issue after the first of the year."

Spielberg's latest letter was addressed on Nov. 15 but released to the press today.

He writes that after China appointed a special envoy to Darfur and and gave its support to a UN resolution to send a peacekeeping force to the region, "I, and much of the rest of the world, felt a sense of optimism and hoped it would bring a lasting peace to the region."

"Unfortunately, since that time, the situation in Darfur has deteriorated and while China's earlier efforts  were encouraging, its silence in the wake of Sudan's recent actions and the resulting chaos on the ground has been disturbing. Sudan is continuing to defy the international community, creating obstacles to the deployment of peacekeepers, increasing violent campaigns against Darfuris and expelling humanitarian officials essential to the very survival of millions of desperate citizens."

He notes that the UN's warning that unless Sudan accepts a hybird peacekeeping force, and other countries contribute, the force will not be ready for deployment in January, 2008.

"So I write you now with a renewed sense of urgency in the hope that China will redouble its efforts to pressure Sudan to join in a fair peace agreement and, at last, bring an end to the genocide."

"Without China's insistence, I fear Sudan will simply 'wait out the clock.'"

In September, Spielberg met with special envoy Liu Guijin in New York and has corresponded with Ambassador Zhou Wenzhong. The director had sent a previous letter to Hu in March.

Spahn says that they are releasing the letter now "in the hopes that it will create action."

"We have called to follow up and were assured immediately that it was delivered to Beijing," Spahn says. But "having not received a response, we felt we should release it publicly in the hope that it will move the debate forward."

The $1 Million Day

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

In the early states, local TV and radio station commercial breaks are overrun with political ads. In Iowa alone, according to the Nielsen Co., Democrats had run 26,655 spots and Republicans 8,699 through mid-November. Barack Obama has unfurled more than 10,000 spots nationwide to Hillary Clinton's 7,839 and Bill Richardson's 7,305. On the GOP side, Mitt Romney dominates ad spending, having unleashed 17,849 spots, followed by Ron Paul with 1,454.

So it can't be too much of a surprise that campaigns reached, for the first time ever, a $1 million day in campaign TV ad spending on Dec. 10, according to Evan Tracey of AdAge.

"What makes this day so extraordinary is the majority of this spending is not from groups, but from the candidates. The spending is largely aimed at voters in just two states and the ads are, for the most part, positive. Further, this amount takes into account only broadcast TV."

Tracey, of  Campaign Media Analysis Group, predicts that spending will reach $2 million on Jan. 2, the day before the Iowa caucus.  TV stations are cutting back elsewhere across the country --- anyone want to work in the heartland?

Roman Holiday: Tina Daunt has a very nice piece on a dinner in Rome to honor George Clooney and Don Cheadle with the Peace Summit Award for their work in raising awareness of the crisis in Darfur. She writes, "In a way, the gathering was a tribute to the style of political activism that has developed over the last few decades, in which the rich and powerful -- as star-struck as everybody else -- gather in private homes to discuss causes with Hollywood luminaries. As it turns out, Hollywood's political style is as much an international commodity as its films." Rome Mayor Walter Veltroni wanted to talk U.S. presidential politics, and said, "We're in trouble if the Democrat doesn't win." Replied Clooney's publicist, Stan Rosenfeld, "So are we."

Time for Truces

In the Democrats' turn at bat (pardon the pun on an auspicious day in baseball) at the Des Moines Register debate on Thursday, candidates all but went out of their way to praise each other. They seemed to have common ground on almost all the issues. They even watched each other's back.

It was a contrast to previous debates, which have promoted, almost from the start, contrast and contention.

The closest there was to anything even resembling a sharp exchange came when Hillary Clinton laughed (or cackled) as moderator Carolyn Washburn asked Barack Obama how his foreign policy would change given that many of his advisers came from the Clinton era.

"I want to hear that!" Hillary interjected.

Obama responded, "Well, Hillary, I'm looking forward to you advising me as well."

She continued to laugh.

This final encounter of the candidates before the Iowa caucus was, like the GOP gathering on Wednesday, almost unabashedly wonkish, with the first 45 minutes or so of devoted to balancing the federal budget, policies on free trade and crop subsidies for farmers. You knew something was different when one candidate, Chris Dodd, brought up the problems with film piracy in China. It's an issue everyone agrees is a problem, but it's hard to get stirred up about it if you're not the one being pirated.

Washburn's questions were slightly better than the day before, and she got an assist from Clinton when she noted that all of the candidates would probably raise their hands on global warming's threat. Fred Thompson brushed off the same query a day earlier.

Feel good moments and stump speech summaries were more common than policy differences on issues. At this event, you all but got the impression that there weren't many. All agreed on the need for better paid teachers, for ambitious plans to pursue alternative energy, for parents to get more involved in their children's education. "Turn off the TV set, put away the videogames," Obama said. Who'd argue with that.

Perhaps foreshadowing the battles to come, the contrasts to their GOP counterparts stood out. Rudy Giuliani wants to cut corporate tax rates; Hillary Clinton suggested raising them. Fred Thompson said he'd be willing to incur deficits to maintain the defense budget; Joe Biden suggested cutting weapons systems.

Perhaps the signature moment was not about an issue at all, but when Washburn asked Joe Biden about gaffes that he has made when talking about race. At the start of his campaign, Biden had called Obama "clean," and later apologized.

So Biden, his head glancing down at the podium, slowed his speaking tone and noted, "My credentials are as good as anyone who's ever run for president of the United States on civil rights."

The rest of the candidates responded, "Hear. hear."

And Obama jumped in and said,  "I have absolutely no doubt about what is in his heart and the commitment that he has made with respect to racial equality in this country."

It was a great respite from the acrimonious campaign --- if only they could have called off the post-debate spin room.

Even Washburn, humorless the day before, managed a smile. John Edwards exuded perhaps the sunniest disposition, if only because he, looked not just at the moderator, but at the camera and the viewers at home.

Echoing his campaign's themes, he said, "We have a small group of entrenched interests, corporate powers, corporate greed, the most wealthy people in America, who are controlling what's happening in the democracy, and we have to take it back starting right here in Iowa."

The difference was not in what he said, but how he said it. It sounded friendlier this time around.

On a day when Clinton apologized to Obama for her campaign co-chair's comments, is this the new kind of politics. I'm skeptical there won't be more acrimony, but it helps to project the positive side of things in your last