Fred Thompson is set to officially declare his candidacy on Thursday, but NBC says that he now is booked to appear on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" the night before.

As sources reported earlier, the former "Law & Order" star is expected to "tease" his candidacy on Leno, making him only the latest contender to use late-night TV as a platform for a campaign. John McCain announced on "Late Show with David Letterman," John Edwards announced his 2004 presidential bid on "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and Arnold Schwarzenegger announced his California gubernatorial bid on Leno.

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

Labor Day weekend marks the start of a frenzied campaign season, but also a breakneck pace of film festivals. And front and center will be Iraq-themed movies, starting with Brian De Palma's "Redacted." Debuting in Venice, it created more than a few headlines today for its depiction of the real-life killing and rape of a 14-year-old Iraqi girl by U.S. soldiers. The AP reports that the screening left some viewers in tears.

De Palma says he relied on the Internet --- YouTube, soldiers' blogs, etc. --- for much of the material, that that the title refers to mainstream media's withholding of information from the general public. "It's all out there on the Internet, you can find it if you look for it, but it's not in the major media. The media is now really part of the corporate establishment," he said.

Also debuting is Paul Haggis' Iraq-themed "In the Valley of Elah," focusing on  the homefront and soldiers' families.

With these pics and other political films, the challenge will be to actually draw audiences who have so far largely shunned current events at the multiplex. And though they may spur debate in some circles, especially with Congress once again taking up troop funding next month, my guess is that these pics will largely be preaching to the converted. That is still significant, but so far audiences haven't seemed to respond to Iraq pics.

Snow Resigns: As expected, Tony Snow is resigning as White House press secretary.

Fred Still Flies: Apparently convinced that equal time rules don't apply to cable networks, TNT plans to continue showing "Law & Order" reruns next week when Fred Thompson launches his presidential campaign.  NBC, however, will pull episodes featuring the Arthur Branch character.

Hillary Clinton's propensity to wear pantsuits --- and David Letterman's tendency to riff on them --- was one of the major topics on her appearance Thursday on CBS's "The Late Show with David Letterman."

She made it the subject of her own Top Ten list --- made up of Top Ten campaign promises: "One more pantsuit joke and Letterman disappears."

Making her 7th appearance on the show, Clinton faced few hardball questions, and instead seemed quite at ease with Letterman.

About the only zinger came when Letterman, in the midst of lobbing softballs, suddenly interjected, "What's the deal with Senator Craig?" The audience laughed.

Clinton, herself laughing, tried to make a serious face and said, "I think it's very sad. It's a very sad story."

Bill Clinton appears on "The Late Show" next week, but Hillary may have given Letterman fodder. When he asked whether the Constitution allowed the former president to run for vice president, Hillary said, "Apparently not. No. Believe me, he looked into that."

She did, however, outline her plan for Iraq.

Larry Craig's arrest has inspired indignation in many circles, and howls of laughter in others.

While some of Craig's fellow Senators call for his resignation, gay rights groups are calling on MSNBC commentator Tucker Carlson to apologize for comments he made while talking about the Idaho senator's arrest.

On Tuesday, in a discussion with Joe Scarborough and Dan Abrams, Carlson recounted a story of being solicited in a restroom in the 1980s and then responding by assaulting the man who propositioned him. Now watchdog group Media Matters for America is calling for MSNBC to explain "Carlson's comments or address why Abrams and Scarborough laughed while Carlson recounted his actions. Instead, MSNBC has treated Carlson's comments as a laughing matter, re-airing the portion in which Carlson claimed to have been 'bothered,' but omitting the portion in which he seemed to boast of physical assault."

Meanwhile, another MSNBC anchor, Keith Olbermann, recreated the entire Craig affair to the tune of "Dragnet."

Fred Thompson will announce via webcast that he's running for president on Sept. 6, after a protracted period of testing the waters for a run.

A spokeswoman for NBC's "Tonight Show with Jay Leno" says that they are trying to finalize plans for Thompson to appear on the show the night before on Wednesday, where he will apparently "tease" his plans. Thompson would be following the footsteps of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in using the Leno show as a platform for announcing a political campaign.

The "Law & Order" star will tour Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, according to the website The Politico.

Thompson told supporters this afternoon that he will get in the race. One worry, however, is whether a "Tonight Show" appearance will steal some of the thunder from a GOP presidential debate in New Hampshire on the same night.

According to the Politico, Thompson's political director Randy Enwright told supporters, “The announcement and the campaign are being built around the senator’s strengths, his consistent mainstream conservatism, his ability to powerfully deliver his message, and of course his strong grassroots support, which you all are a very shining example of."

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

The second anniversary of Hurricane Katrina inspired a host of retrospectives today, but it is likely to be only the start of a series of efforts to keep attention on the ongoing rebuilding efforts in New Orleans and other parts of Louisiana. Fox's "K-ville," a police drama filmed in New Orleans, debuts on Sept. 17 (and is available online here). The artist Neufeld has a graphic novel called "A.D.: New Orleans After The Deluge," with the sixth chapter posted this week. (The Los Angeles Times' Geoff Boucher profiles him here). And among the various aid efforts is one from Quincy Jones and Usher, who have joined with Habitat for Humanity to call attention to the continued need to assist victims from the storm. (Jones' video plea is here.)

Carlson Clarifies: In talking on MSNBC about Sen. Larry Craig's men's room arrest, commentator/"Dancing with the Stars" contestant Tucker Carlson relayed an anecdote about a sexual advance he got in a restroom in the 1980s. He and a friend responded by grabbing the man and assaulting him up a bit until authorities could arrived and arrested the man.

Carlson told MSNBC's Dan Abrams, "Having sex in a public men's room is outrageous. It's also really common. I've been bothered in men's rooms." Carlson continued, "I've been bothered in Georgetown Park," in Washington, D.C., "when I was in high school." When Abrams asked how Carlson responded to being "bothered," Carlson asserted, "I went back with someone I knew and grabbed the guy by the -- you know, and grabbed him, and ... hit him against the stall with his head, actually."

On Wednesday, Carlson issued a statement to clarify what he said:

"Let me be clear about an incident I referred to on MSNBC last night: In the mid-1980s, while I was a high school student, a man physically grabbed me in a men's room in Washington, DC. I yelled, pulled away from him and ran out of the room. Twenty-five minutes later, a friend of mine and I returned to the men's room. The man was still there, presumably waiting to do to someone else what he had done to me. My friend and I seized the man and held him until a security guard arrived.

"Several bloggers have characterized this is a sort of gay bashing. That's absurd, and an insult to anybody who has fought back against an unsolicited sexual attack. I wasn't angry with the man because he was gay. I was angry because he assaulted me."

The night before Barack Obama heads to Montecito to raise money at the home of Oprah Winfrey, Michelle Obama will be in Los Angeles for a fund-raiser at the Bel-Air home of Barry and Lea Porter. Barry Porter is managing general partner of Clarity Partners, a private equity firm specializing in media and communications.

Tickets for the Sept. 7 reception are $500, with $2,300 for a listing as a chair. In addition to the Porters, those on the host committee include Nicole Avant, Giselle Fernandez, Victoria Hopper, Irena Medavoy, Sherry Lansing, Jamie and Michael Lynton, Cookie Parker, Joyce Rey and Charlie Rivkin.

In June, Fernandez hosted a fund-raiser featuring Michelle Obama at her home in Hancock Park.

Also, from Pop & Politics, there's a recap of the scene at Falcon last weekend, where 008 The Movement hosted the kickoff of Generation Obama. Among those also there (who I missed): supermodel Tyson Beckford.

Updated

With Hillary Clinton on Letterman on Thursday night and taping "The Ellen Show" on Friday, talk shows are more popular a campaign stop than ever. Some candidates, like John McCain, are visiting shows multiple times. ABCNews.com rounds up the latest bookings, which include Barack Obama on "The Tyra Banks Show" and Obama and Clinton doing "The View" next month. The reasons are obvious: It's a friendlier environment, candidates have a chance to appear more human and they are reaching audiences they may not otherwise reach.

The irony in all of this that is not mentioned is that Oprah Winfrey has yet to schedule any of the candidates on her show. In elections past, her show has been a stopping off point for presidential contenders, particularly in the general election. Both George Bush and Al Gore visited in 2000.

But the booking of politicians on talk shows is creating dicey situations. Because she has endorsed Barack Obama, how is she going to interview Hillary Clinton without such an appearance being scrutinized for any hint of bias one way or another? Or during the general election, if Obama is the nominee, it would stand to reason that she would face the same scrutiny if she interviewed a GOP candidate. My guess is that she will steer clear of the candidates themselves, but I may be wrong.

In fact, Bill Clinton will appear on her show on Tuesday (as well as on "The Late Show with David Letterman"), to talk about his book, "Giving." Surely the campaign will be addressed, and I would expect Winfrey to provide diplomatic words of priase for Hillary. In fact, the Clinton campaign is sending out messages promoting the appearance, perhaps to help blunt the impact of Winfrey's endorsement of Obama. That will be on full display just days later, when Winfrey hosts Obama at her home for a much-anticipated fund-raiser.

The Obama camp obviously is more than thrilled that they have Winfrey's endorsement, as they see it as on a totally different level than any other celebrity endorsement. Not only is she proving a big draw in rasiing money, but there is hope that she will appeal to women voters, especially those who may otherwise be inspired by Clinton's candidacy. And if the price for this is that Oprah ends up having no candidate on her show this season, it is a small price to pay compared to the benefits they are expecting.

One more note: Winfrey probably could have Obama on her show and not invite any of the others. Officially, given past federal election decisions, it's doubtful that any of these shows would have to abide by equal time rules, even though most invite all of the candidates to appear if they invite one. Letterman, Leno and DeGeneres are neutral, at least when it comes to fund-raising. They have not given to any candidate. Banks has given to Obama.

It was a bevy of one-liners last night as John McCain appeared on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno."  In the riffs on his own campaign, however, he does acknowledge half-hearted fund-raising while insisting, "I love being the underdog."

"We're doing so poorly," McCain told Leno, "that I thought maybe I would announce on this show that I'm running for president."

He turned his bite to Alberto Gonzales's resignation ("it should have happened a long time ago"), Donald Rumsfeld ("one of the worst secretaries of defense in history") and Larry Craig ("disgraceful.")

Asked if there would be a McCain girl, ala Obamagirl, he said, "Yes. Bea Arthur."

From BBC's "Little Britain":

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

In an interview with The Politico, Fred Thompson tries to soften expectations of his fund-raising in the current quarter.

“I imagine we will fall off some in July and August and have a great September,” Thompson said, boasting he “would compare what we’ve been able to do in a few months with what others have done in their first few months, whenever that was.”

He also addressed concerns over staff turmoil and whether he's waited too long to delare officially that he is running. He called the staff changes "normal organizational developments."

“We’re doing in a few months what other people have done in a much, much longer period of time,” he said. “It’s just that simple. We don’t get the luxury of making adjustments along the way.”

It's also unlikely that Thompson will participate in a Sept. 5 presidential forum on Fox News.

Craig Arrest: Hollywood celebs may have advice for Idaho Sen. Larry Craig in his attempts to deny he's gay.

Stone Project: Oliver Stone will direct "Pinkville," a new UA/MGM pic about the investigation of the My Lai massacre in 1968. Bruce Willis and Channing Tatum will star.

Objective Burma: In the latest example of a star jumping into an international human rights cause, Jim Carrey has taped a video plea to free Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been confined by the Burmese government for 11 of the last 17 years.

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

Mitt Romney said he wouldn't see it, and so too did many filmgoers.

"September Dawn," which depicts a particularly sad chapter in the history of the church, draw just $617,000 on 857 screens, for a per-screen average of just $720.

The film depicts the 1857 massacre of 120 people, including children, by a group of Mormon extremists in southern Utah. Romney has said little about the film, but of the massacre, he told the Associated Press: "That was a terrible, awful act carried out by members of my faith. There are bad people in any church and it's true of members of my church, too."

Stars on the Stump: Carly Simon, Mary Steenburgen and Ted Danson headlined a fund-raiser for Hillary Clinton over the weekend at the outdoor Tabernacle on Martha's Vineyard.

Updated

Next week marks the unofficial start of the presidential primary campaigns, what will be a breakneck pace of fund-raising and politicking at least until January (not that it hasn't gone on already).

There's already been much speculation of how seriously Barack Obama's campaign will challenge Hillary Clinton, especially when it comes to Obama's "experience" issue.

On Saturday, before a hip crowd at Falcon Restaurant, Obama's new California Campaign director Mitchell Schwartz perhaps offered a preview of harsh rhetoric to come when he "took the gloves off" and focused on Clinton's experience. He cited her stint in the late 1980s on the Wal Mart board of directors, "While they perfected the art of denying health care and retirement benefits for their workers."

Schwartz continued, "In the 1990s, she headed the health care task force. She couldn't get anything through a Democratically controlled Congress. We had all of Congress and not one piece of legislation got through. Now there are more uniusured Americans that ever. Because of that debacle, we lost Congress, and I was there. I was working for the Clinton administration at the time. We lost Congress, there were a bunch of investigations, it led to impeachment and we wasted the last bunch of years of the Clinton administration. Now let's go to this decade. She voted to authorize the war in October of 2002. She didn't read the National Intelligence Estimate. This was something that was available to all 100 senators. And in fact it was so important that Bob Graham, who was the chairman of the intelligence committee then, he's a conservative Democrat, he read the report... and it convinced him to vote against it. She didn't bother reading it."

He added, "Experience without judgment leads to Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney."

Schwartz then noted, "Barack Obama, when he takes office in 2009 will be older than JFK and older than Bill Clinton (at their inaugurals). He will have served in government for more time than Hillary Clinton and John Edwards."

Many in the crowd were young industry professionals, part of a new fund-raising and organizing group called Generation Obama. Saturday marked the kickoff of such groups across the country.

Clinton's California spokesperson, Luis Vizcaino, had this response: "Senator Obama says he wants to change politics but attacking other Democrats in the face of falling poll numbers screams status quo. The reality is that Senator Clinton has been a change advocate for over 35 years and has the strength and experience to make change happen starting on day one of her presidency."

More photos from the event at 008 the Movement.

Bill Clinton will stump for Hillary Clinton on Sept. 18, when he is guest-of-honor at a cocktail reception fund-raiser at the Brentwood home of CAA's David O'Connor and his wife Lona Williams.

The event, which starts at 8 p.m., starts at $250-per-person for a cocktail reception, another $500 donor level for a cocktail reception and a $2,300 level for a VIP reception. The $250 tickets are close to selling out, from what I hear.

Co-hosts of the event are Steve Bing, Scott Budnick, Ron Burkle, CAA's Michael Kives and O'Connor and Williams. Kives is a former aide to Bill Clinton.

In February, as fund-raising was getting into full swing, Hillary Clinton addressed donors at a CAA gathering and met with the agency's partners.

Oprah Winfrey's fund-raiser for Barack Obama on Sept. 8 is being talked up as the donor event of the year, one that promises to be chalk full of industry execs and celebrities.

But just how much do they stand to raise?

The buzz going around the Obama camp is that as many as 1,700 people are now expected, including some 100 people at a pre-event VIP reception (given this was invitation only, aren't they all VIPs?).  The figures come from a source who has perused the guest list. So at $2,300 per person, that is $3.9 million. It's a staggering sum, which would easily make it the biggest Hollywood fund-raiser this year, although not the biggest of all time. One of the biggest was a 2004 DNC event for John Kerry at Disney Hall , where $5 million was raised, but donors could contribute up to $25,000.

Of course, just the business of raising money for candidates is, obviously, extremely competitive, and other campaigns often will scoff at figures as being inflated and fudged.  And both the Clinton and Obama camps are  in another breakneck pace of fund-raising before the third quarter ends on Sept. 30.

Updated

Amber Lee Ettinger, right, assured on Saturday that "Obamagirl is for Obama," despite some speculation this week that she was leaning toward Hillary Clinton.

Ettinger herself is keeping her choice secret, but her alter ego is not.

Ettinger was shooting a new video at a launch event on Saturday for Generation O, the Obama camp's name for various young professionals orgs across the country that are mobilizing for the Illinois senator's presidential bid.

The Obamagirl videos have been a curious sidelight, inspiring imitators from enthusiasts from other campaigns as well as a few spoofs. Ettinger has yet to meet the candidate himself, although in comments last week Obama didn't seem too pleased at having to explain her presence in the campaign to his daughter.

Some 150 people in their 20s and 30s ---many in the industry --- passed through Falcon Restaurant for the event, with Obama having taped a special DVD greeting (he was not there but in Miami). Los Angeles city councilman Eric Garcetti and actor Hill Harper, who went to Harvard Law School with Obama, addressed the crowd.

Garcetti said that Obama has been polling best in the Democratic field among independents and Republicans "because people are sick of the divisions, yet we are proud progressives in here. We are supporting Obama because he had the judgment to oppose the war before it happened, not to make up for it afterward, because has a resume second to none out there in this campaign."

Obama's new state campaign director, Mitchell Schwartz, assured them that although Obama is down 20 to 25 nationally, "those mean absolutely nothing." He instead said they should focus on early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, where polls show a tighter, neck-and-neck race.

Reflecting Obama's hardened criticism of Clinton, Schwartz also chided their chief opponent for failure to do more about health care and for not reading the National Intelligence Estimate before voting in 2002 to authorize President Bush to use force to remove Saddam Hussein. And he also addressed the experience question --- considered Obama's chief drawback. More here.

Schwartz, who has his own Los Angeles public affairs firm, was Bill Clinton's New Hampshire state director in 1992. He then went to work in the office of public affairs in the State Department from 1993 to 1995. He's also worked on campaigns for Barbara Boxer, Gray Davis and Antonio Villaraigosa. More recently, he worked on the campaign for "An Inconvenient Truth" as well as the Save Darfur Campaign.

The young professionals group Generation Obama launches in Hollywood Saturday with a $25-per-person fund-raiser at Falcon on Sunset. The candidate himself is in Miami, at a similar event, but will address the crowd via a specially taped DVD.

Among the celebrities expected are Taye Diggs, Tyson Beckford, Mehcad Brooks and Hill Harper, along with city councilman Eric Garcetti. Music will come from Shakespeare & Aurelito. And there will be the opportunity to get a silk screened shirt of the Obama image, right.

It will be interesting to see the turnout, because the event is being largely organized by grassroots organizers in Los Angeles as opposed to the campaign itself.

The event runs from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m.

MTV and My Space's plans for a series of candidate "dialogues" has the goal of boosting voter turnout --- the latest iteration of the "Choose or Lose" franchise.

But have "Choose or Lose," "Rock the Vote" and the many other get-out-the-vote efforts worked?

Maybe so. In the 2004 presidential election, the 18-29 age group remained 17% of the voting population, the same as 2000. But voter turnout among the youth population jumped 9 percent, to more than 50 percent, with nearly 5 million more showing up to the polls compared to 2000.

The turnout rate in 2004 matched that of 1992, which, by the way, is when MTV seriously entered the picture.

According to a report from the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics, and Public Policy at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government, Iraq and terrorism were top issues that helped drive young people to the polls. But this age group also said a reason for going to the ballot box was "my family or friends encouraged me to vote." Of less influence was a campaign's phone call or group contact. So take your pick on where hip TV and the Internet efforts fit in.

There's much speculation that this year, with MySpace and YouTube in the mix, as well as the continued popularity of "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The Colbert Report," this audience will be engaged as never before, and turnout's upward trend will continue.

Robert Greenwald has unveiled a new chapter in his campaign against Fox News, this one designed to illuminate the channel's coverage of Iran. Working with him is Rep. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont).

"Other networks followed Fox's lead on Iraq. ...TV news networks must not repeat the mistakes of the past."

Slate unveiled this new feature: A survey of election ads in real time, of some 450 Democrats and Republicans. The first is Hillary Clinton's new "Invisible" ad, and the results are little surprise. Those on the left find it believable and those on the right don't. It will be interesting to see if any other the candidates score any bipartisanship.

With manufactured controversies, Osama innuendo and Obamagirl, what was Barack Obama to say when Jon Stewart asked whether running for president can be insane?

"Every day it reveals itself in new ways," he told Stewart on his first presidential campaign stop to "The Daily Show" on Wednesday night.

From the AP:

"So we're preparing and one of my staff said, 'The thing you've got to understand is, this isn't on the level.' And I think that really strikes to what people are frustrated with in politics, is that so much of what we talk about, so much of what we say, it's not true, people know it's not true, all the insiders understand that we're just game-playing and in the meantime you've got these hugely serious problems, which are true."

Noting Obama's support among Hollywood celebrities and Oprah, Stewart said, "That just doesn't seem good. I still remember Howard Dean in Iowa with Martin Sheen introducing him, quoting an Indian poet to a caucus group of literally AFL-CIO workers and just seeing their faces like this: 'Huh?'"

Laughing at the comment, Obama said, "Well, look, you don't use folks in that way. I think having Oprah's support is wonderful. ...But the truth is, in Iowa and New Hampshire, people  just want to talk to you....There's no one who can do that job other than you."

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

Fred Thompson was a bit cagey today when asked about whether he actually is running for President, telling the radio show "Mickelson in the Morning," "I have declared that I'm going to declare." He is "testing the waters," but his position is being challenged on a legal front and by a few political strategists who wonder if he's lost some momentum.

But his wait hasn't yet cost Thompson in the polls, as he still ranks in the top tier even as an undeclared. That may be thanks to his prime time stardom, which will certainly help more than it hurts, according to the experts who weigh in to the Associated Press. He gets another ringing endorsement, at least for looking presidential, from "Law & Order" producer/creator Dick Wolf.

"When Fred, as Arthur Branch, walks into a room, people feel like they should stand up and salute. Fred is the living definition of command presence," Wolf says. "If you look back at his previous roles, you can see I'm not the only producer who has felt this way."

Meanwhile, Thompson's legal challenge comes from Lane Hudson, a blogger who writes Newsfortheleft.com, who argues that his campaign activities are illegal given that his "testing the waters" committee has acted like any other declared candidate's committee. Hudson is a former Democratic staffer who had a role in exposing Mark Foley last year.

He writes, "I was reading the research that was done by other bloggers and saw a statement by the FEC that said they were unable to investigate the matter unless a complaint was filed.  So, I pulled together the research done by other bloggers and put it into the form of a complaint.

"Other than that, I was motivated to file the complaint because I am tired of the disregard for the law that we've seen in Washington, particularly among Republicans.  There has been enough distrust placed into our electoral system and we need to hold Thompson accountable."

Thompson's campaign has dismissed the complaint and said, "We're following the law."

There's speculation that Thompson will declare after Labor Day, which means that he won't have to publicly disclose much of his campaign's financials until after Janurary 1, a thought that irks not just those on the Democratic side but surely some of the other GOP campaigns.

"Hardball" Switch: Tammy Haddad is leaving her post as exec producer of "Hardball with Chris Matthews," the MSNBC show that's a favorite among Washington insiders and political junkies. She will continue to focus on broader political coverage for the news network.

Chiding the FCC: Civil rights groups demand an apology from FCC chair Kevin Martin for what they call "patronizing and insulting" remarks he made about their opposition to a proposal to offer cable programming ala carte.

Declare Yourself: Hayden Panettierre, right, turns 18 and registers to vote as part of Norman Lear's Declare Yourself voter project.

Some of California's top Democrats now are planning a June ballot initiative that would call for the awarding of the state's presidential electors to the winner of the national popular vote. More simply, it would make sure that the winner of the White House is the one who gets the most votes.

The measure would take effect only if states representing a majority of the electoral votes agree to the change.

The group pushing the initiative, Californians for Fair Election Reform, is boosted by hedge fund manager Tom Steyer and producer Steve Bing.

If the initiative gets on the June statewide ballot, it may compete with a Republican-led initiative that would award California's electoral votes based on the winner of the popular vote in each of the state's congressional districts. It is being pushed by a lawyer who has represented the California Republican Party and the group Californians for Equal Representation. So in 2004 instead of John Kerry getting all 55 of the state's electoral votes in the current winner-take-all system, he would have garnered 33, and Bush would have been awarded 22.

Democrats believe that if such an initiative passed, and no other state took similar action, it would all but eliminate their chances of capturing the White House. "You would have to have a tectonic shift of the electoral plates" for initiative not to have a detrimental effect on Democratic chances, says political consultant Chris Lehane, who is working on the campaign for Californians for Fair Election Reform.

The state's Democrats have mobilized in recent weeks to counter what they have characterized as a power grab by the GOP.  Lehane says their initiative won't have similar wording to that offered by Californians for Equal Representation.

The end result may be that voters are confused, and they do what they normally do, which is to vote down both initiatives. But that still would be a victory for the Democrats, because it retains the status quo.

Californians for Fair Election Reform also offered up  another initiative  that acts as a "poison pill." If both pass, the one with the most votes is the one that goes into effect. If it is the district-by-district initiative, it goes into effect in the November, 2008 election. If it is the popular vote initiative, it would go into effect only when enough other states pass it as well. That is a big if, and it is doubtful that such a change could be put into place before 2008.

What's more, both initiatives still need enough signatures to make it on the ballot.

Trying to bolster his credentials as an advocate of the Second Amendment, Fred Thompson invoked his experience making "Law & Order" in New York City as a way to throw a dart at Rudy Giuliani. The former New York mayor's response: Join the "real world."

Thompson writes on his blog, "When I was working in television, I spent quite a bit of time in New York City. There are lots of things about the place I like, but New York gun laws don’t fall in that category.

He continues,"The same activist federal judge from Brooklyn who provided Mayor Giuliani’s administration with the legal ruling it sought to sue gun makers, has done it again. Last week, he created a bizarre justification to allow New York City to sue out-of-state gun stores that sold guns that somehow ended up in criminal hands in the Big Apple.

"The lawsuit has been a lesson in out-of-control government from the get-go. Mayor Bloomberg sent private investigators to make “straw” purchases – illegally buying guns for somebody else. According to the ATF, NY’s illegal “stings” interfered with ongoing investigations of real gun traffickers."

According to ABC News, Giuliani's campaign released the following statement: "Those who live in New York in the real world - not on TV - know that Rudy Giuliani's record of making the city safe for families speaks for itself. No amount of political theater will change that."

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

Late August is supposed to be the dog days of summer, when everyone checks out on much needed breaks. But if campaigns aren't continuing to raise money, they surely are busy planning it. Rudy Giuliani will be in Southern California on Wednedsay for a fund-raising swing and a public appearance in Del Mar.

Among the Democrats, Hillary Clinton's camp is planning its Sept. 14 event at the home of Magic Johnson, while Barack Obama's campaign is finalizing details of the big fund-raiser (now sold-out) at the home of Oprah Winfrey. Winfrey's camp is directing much of the planning, and word is they had very little difficulty finding takers for the $2,300-per-person tickets, with much interest not only in the candidate but in seeing Oprah's home.

Meanwhile, candidates also are locking down dates for further visits, in an effort to meet third quarter goals, made all the more difficult as likely donors max out. So the pressure is on even as it gets harder and harder to shake anything from the tree. "You cannot slow down," says one fund-raiser.

There will be an afternoon Obama fund-raiser on Saturday at Sunset Bouleavrd nightclub Falcon, where the candidate will appear via teleconference from Miami.

Clinton is some 30 points ahead in California polls, so her boosters in L.A. certainly hope that will only help her bandwagon. Her camp is staking out dates some six weeks away, with an Oct. 1 fund-raiser at the home of Mapleton Investments' Marc Nathanson. His sons Adam and David also are organizers of the event, which will be aimed at least in part at young professionals with a minimum $500-per-person ticket price.

Oprah's Appeal: Helena Andrews of The Politico challenges the notion that Oprah Winfrey's endorsement of Barack Obama will mean a boost among Obama's support among African-Americans. She writes, "According to fall 2006 Simmons Research data, white women comprise 77 percent of Oprah’s viewing audience (defined as folks who watched the show one to five times a week). Only 17 percent are black. Also, 41 percent of the viewers are registered Democrats, 31 percent are Republicans and 13 percent are independents. ...Oprah’s real buying power is as one of the most influential, recognizable, powerful and philanthropic women in the world, not as the spokeswoman for black folk everywhere."

Logo Postscript: In the extensive analysis of the event, blogger Chris Crain wonders why Hilary Rosen was a producer on the recent Logo/HRC presidential forum, given that she is a backer of Hillary Clinton. Rosen, former chief lobbyist for the Recording Industry Assn. of America, does her own rundown of the forum and writes that she has "never been so careful in my life to stay unbiased in a process."

Cash Splash: A follow-up to a post from last week: Johnny Cash's political activism comes through in a new DVD release of his 1969-71 ABC variety series, "The Johnny Cash Show." A narrator says in the intro, "While a war in Vietnam divided America, a revolution on television brought us all back together...Through it all, one man served as the ultimate ambassador." Cash's first guest was a counter-cultural Bob Dylan, and the two sang "Girl from the North Country" (clip below). According to the Los Angeles Times interview with Kris Kristofferson, Cash didn't shy away from using politically charged lyrics to "wishin Lord that I was stoned" in Kristofferson's "Sunday Mornin' Comin' Down," even though ABC execs were none too happy about it.

Jimmy Carter will be in Toronto for the screening of the new Jonathan Demme doc "Jimmy Carter: Man from Plains," but it's uncertain if the doc will give him a boost ala Al Gore and "An Inconvenient Truth."

The documentary follows the former president around on his book tour for "Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid," which rattled some Jewish leaders as anti-Israel, particularly in the title's suggestion that the situation could be equated with South Africa. Alan Dershowitz claimed that he has a "bias" against Israel. Carter spent much time defending the book and its title, even to the point of facing one caller to a C-SPAN program (below) who called him an anti-Semite. "For people to say that I am against Israel... or to suggest that I am an anti-Semite, is something that I reject with enthusiasm."

In Janurary, Demme was stymied in his efforts to follow Carter around when Brandeis University refused the filmmakers' access to an appearance by Carter before a student gathering.

It's expected that the pic will focus on Carter's peacemaking efforts, as it was once titled "He Comes in Peace." The various controversies surrounding the book are bound to come up again when Carter faces the Toronto crowd in as Q&A forum.

Variety's Anne Thompson has details of the pic, to debut at the Venice Film Festival before its Toronto screening.

There's a reason that more people are grousing about the 2008 presidential race's early start: It's all over the news.

According to the Project for Excellence in Journalism, campaign coverage dominated news coverage from April to May, even though Election Day is more than a year and a half away. About one-tenth of the news hole among broadcasters and cablers went to the 08 race. MSNBC clocked in with 21% of its time given to the election. Meanwhile, coverage of the war in Iraq fell.

As a perpetrator of a tiny sliver of political coverage, who am I to argue? But with falling ratings for presidential debates, you have to wonder if there will be some kind of rethinking of how much time to devote to the campaigns this early out.

The Obama Girl video, below, and the raft of imitators it spawned, was a hit on the Internet, but not in the Obama household.

From the AP:

"Sen. Obama, D-Ill., said he knows the video was meant to be lighthearted, but he wasn’t smiling when asked about it in the interview.

“I guess it’s too much to ask, but you do wish people would think about what impact their actions have on kids and families,” Obama said.

“This is part of the process of politics that can be difficult, (that) is making sure that your kids and your wife and your family are insulated from both things like this and what I suspect will be at some point some negative campaigning,” Obama said."

Producer Stephen Bing chipped in about $50 million of his own money last year to try to pass an environmental initiative that would have placed a tax on oil companies, but the measure failed.

He's once again stepping up, this time to defeat a threatened initiative on next June's ballot that would change the way the state picks its presidential electors. He and hedge fund manager Tom Steyer are uniting in a campaign to defeat the proposal, with the committee supported by some of the state's top Democrats.

The initiative is backed by Thomas Hiltachk, a lawyer for the state Republican party, via a group called Californians for Equal Representation. Instead of the winner of the state's popular vote gaining all of the state's 55 electors, the electors would be distributed to candidates based on who won each congressional district. So in 2004, instead of John Kerry getting all 55 of the state's electoral votes, he would have gotten just 33.

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

A little late today, as I was on an assignment this morning...

Not too long ago, there were rumors that Fred Thompson was delaying his official entry into the presidential race to maximize his return from "Law & Order" reruns, some of which would have to be pulled if he officially gets into the race because of equal time laws. Thompson denied this, and it is a bit of a leap, but Washington strategists are still puzzled at why it has taken him so long to enter the race. And on Monday, his delay earned him a legal challenge.

According to ABC News, a liberal activist filed a complaint with federal election officials, charging that Thompson's "testing the waters" committee actually is a presidential committee. It's a nuance in election laws that allows contenders to "test the waters" for a run, allowing them to avoid some disclosure rules, even though most people would have a hard time noticing the difference. Thompson was in Iowa over the weekend (above), has opened a headquarters, launched a website and is hiring staff. He's been "testing the waters" long enough for a few staffers to quit, too. The word now is that Thompson is looking to after Labor Day to formally declare.

Rove's Run: In a rare round of the Sunday morning talk shows before he exits the White House, Karl Rove defended his record, got in a few more shots at Hillary Clinton and said this about his rap appearance before a Washington correspondents' dinner. From the New York Times: “They dragged me up there,” he told Chris Wallace on Fox News. “I was uncomfortable, and I said, ‘I’ve got a choice. I can be irritated and everybody will see it, or I can play along and try and show them I’m a good sport.’ ” He noted that his black-tie rap routine, shown over and over on television and the Internet, was his “most humiliating moment in Washington, bar none.”

Doc Spot: Thor Halvorssen looks about old enough to be cast in "High School Musical," but the half-Norweigian Venezuelan gets profiled in the New York Times as the producer of some against-the-tide documentaries. The latest is "Indoctrinate U," which challenges political correctness on campus via Michael Moore's guerilla tactics. Halvorssen's Moving Picture Institute also has helped finance "Mine Your Own Business," billed as the world's first anti-environmentalist documentary. Halvorssen, however, doesn't fit into any easily definable category of partisanship. “Pop culture has the power to be transformational culture,” he said. “A film can reach a lot more people than a white paper. You could think of the film as a trailer for the white paper." He paused, then said, “Put it this way: What ‘Sideways’ did for pinot noir, I want to do for freedom.”

New Biden Ad: Joseph Biden debuted his first spot to run in Iowa, this one focusing (not too suprisingly) on Iraq and that he is "the only candidate with a plan to get us out of Iraq and keep us out."

The Los Angeles Times' Tina Daunt gets more details of Oprah Winfrey's Barack Obama fund-raiser, an event that is being labeled as a "celebration," albeit one that will leave all attendees with $2,300 debits.

The afternoon event on Sept. 8 will be a garden party, with guests checking in not at Winfrey's home but at the Earl Warren Fairgrounds in Santa Barbara. For security reasons, invitees are instructed to not bring any type of gifts for Winfrey or Obama, and the invites are absolutely non-transferable.

More than 1,000 people are expected at the event at Winfrey's Montecito estate, in what could be Obama's biggest fund-raiser of the campaign. There's some hope, obviously, that Oprah's endorsement could help Obama electorally, particularly among women and African-Americans.

Arrangements for the Oprah event are far different from other fund-raisers. Her team is directing the efforts, with seven invites each distributed to members of the national finance committee. Included are Jeffrey Katzenberg, David Geffen and Broadway producer Margo Lion.

In case you are wondering, the food will come from  longtime  Oprah chef Art Smith,  who is  launching Chicago's new Table Fifty-Two restaurant with Julie Latsko, according to  Bill Zwecker of the Chicago  Sun-Times.

More than any other celebrity activist, Mia Farrow has been the most provocative in pressing for action in Darfur. As a UNICEF goodwill ambassador, she's challenged leaders, offered to trade in her freedom, and has even questioned the role of Hollywood's elite.

On her return home this week from a trip to Rwanda and eastern Chad, Farrow sounded cautious on China's recent move to support a UN resolution to send peacekeepers to Darfur in an effort to end the genocide.

"China has made promising sounds, but the reality is that people on the ground are still suffering," she wrote via e-mail to Variety. "The words and pieces of paper are, at this point, simply that."

On Wednesday in Rwanda, Farrow participated in a symbolic torch relay that will travel to countries that have experienced genocide. She has drawn much attention lately as she has linked the crisis to China, Sudan's No. 1 oil customer, and the international community's participation in the Beijing Olympics next summer.

She created perhaps the greatest stir when she and her son, Ronan, wrote a Wall Street Journal editorial piece in March, questioning Steven Spielberg's role as artistic adviser to the Games. Specifically, she warned that unless China did more about the Sudan, Spielberg's role would be akin to filmmaker Leni Riefenstahl's participation in the 1936 Berlin Olympics. 

In her e-mail, Farrow addressed her approach:

"When it became apparent that Steven Spielberg had agreed to participate in the Olympics as artistic director,  I was bewildered. Was it possible that Mr. Spielberg did not know of China's oil entanglements with Sudan? So I wrote him a letter explaining China's complicity in the Darfur genocide and how Beijing is underwriting the slaughter in Darfur through their oil investments. Seventy percent of Sudan's oil revenue from China are used to attack the people of Darfur through the purchase of bombers, attack helicopters, munitions factories, and the arming and training of their militias. China also sells Sudan arms, many of which have been used in Darfur.

"When time passed and I received no response, my son Ronan and I wrote that Wall Street Journal piece.

"Undeniably, Mr. Spielberg is respected throughout the world as a moral figure who has demonstrated genuine commitment to fighting genocide --- through the Shoah Foundation and through his fine film 'Schindler's List.' However, through his cooperation with Beijing, Mr. Spielberg lends the Chinese government precisely the moral cover it is seeking."

(A bit of a clarification: Spielberg is serving as artistic adviser to the Games, on a team that is being led by Chinese director Zhang Yimou.) 

When it comes to China, Spielberg's approach to is more subtle although often very public.

Several days after her Wall Street Journal piece, Spielberg wrote an open letter to Chinese President Hu Jintao, calling for greater action on Darfur. His rep says that the timing of the letter was coincidental to Farrow's Wall Street Journal piece.  In addition,  they say that they never heard from Farrow before it was written. So something was lost in translation.

Moreover, his reps say that the director has been well aware of the crisis in Darfur and has been pressing for ways to stop it, working with the likes of George Clooney and Don Cheadle.

His political adviser, Andy Spahn, says that they are in the process of setting up a face to face meeting with Chinese officials, although none is scheduled yet. A wave of stories last month suggested that Spielberg was considering pulling out of the Games. Although Spielberg has made no public statement as such, China did support the UN resolution. It's debatable as it is to whether Spielberg, Farrow or the activist community had any influence.

Like Farrow, Spielberg and his team are encouraged by some of China's recent moves, but much depends on what happens on the ground in Darfur in the coming months.

"We are pleased that the new resolution passed, but we have been in this place before," Farrow says. "Just one year ago, the UN passed an excellent resolution (1706) yet nearly 12 long months later no one has come to protect the people of Darfur and eastern Chad."

When the GOP launched a new e-mail blast against John Edwards, they mockingly called him "Johnny Cash." It's a riff on his costly haircuts, expensive home and higher taxes --- and they branded Edwards on a $1 million bill and sent it out to Iowans.

That didn't sit too well with the late singer's estate, which politely asked the party to cease and desist, which it did.

"We're in a ring of fire," joked an RNC official to U.S. News' Washington Whispers. "They called us and said they had some issues with the trademarks and all. But they were cool about it. I mean, we have the same constituency."

Same constituency? In 2004, in one of many parties tied to the Republican Convention, the GOP's Tennessee delegation held a tribute to Cash, as liberal bloggers protested. Cash was a Hollywood fave, and in the early 70s was known as "the liberal voice" of country music, what with his opposition to the Vietnam war and campaigns for the civil rights of prisoners and Native Americans.

After that, Cash's politics are difficult to discern. He had a Billy Graham-like friendliness with most of the Presidents, especially Carter, to whom his wife June Carter Cash was a cousin. In his autobiography, published around the time of his death in 2003, Cash praises Nixon (above), Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush and Clinton --- but he didn't vote for Nixon, Reagan or Clinton. He didn't write anything about Bush II in the book, but he does make mention of Hillary Clinton.

He writes about singing at a New York function where Hillary was present. "I was a small gathering at which they asked me for a few songs and I obliged, singing "Tennessee Stud," and some funny songs and spiritual songs and telling stories about Arkansas. That felt good, but I think Hillary was a little uncomfortable when I sang 'The Beast in Me,' Nick Lowe's dark little acknowledgment of how far peoiple like he and I can get, but other than that it was a fine evening, and it reminded me that I've always liked her. I don't care what she did in Arkansas. I like her husband, too, even if I've never voted for him. Come to think of it, I didn't vote for Nixon, either. Nor Ronald Reagan."

Update: In addition to the oddity of linking Edwards to Cash, blogger William Beutler notes that in a song Cash once sang, "The One on the Right is on the Left," he cautioned about singers getting too political:

Now this should be a lesson if you plan to start a folk group
Don’t go mixin’ politics with the folk songs of our land
Just work on harmony and diction
Play your banjo well
And if you have political convictions keep them to yourself

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

Continuing her efforts to press China on Darfur, Mia Farrow led an Olympic-style torch relay in the Rwanda capital of Kigali along with other activists and those touched by the genocide there and in the Sudan. Activists lit a torch that they said was symbolic of China's role as host of the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. "This flame represents the hope we all share for an end to the violence and a safe return home," said Farrow, who is the goodwill ambassador for the U.N. Children's Fund UNICEF. China has agreed to a UN Security Council resolution to send peacekeepers to the region, but  Farrow and other activists want to be sure that the plan is followed through. The relay will travel to other countries  affected by genocide throughout history, including Armenia, Bosnia, Germany and Cambodia as well as Hong Kong.

Thompson's Test: He's delayed his entry into the race, but Fred Thompson is determined to make a splash. That's the conclusion of the dean of political columnists, David Broder, who interviewed the former "Law & Order" star for more than two hours. Writes Broder, "When Fred Thompson makes his long-delayed entrance into the Republican presidential race, he will not tiptoe quietly. Instead, he will try to shake up the establishment candidates of both parties by depicting a nation in peril from fiscal and security threats -- and prescribing tough cures that he says others shrink from offering."

Buffett's Boost: He threw a fund-raiser for Hillary Clinton earlier this summer, and on Wednesday it was Barack Obama's turn. Warren Buffett appeared with the Illinois senator at an event in Omaha, where Buffett offered much praise. ``Apparently the government in its wisdom thinks that some guy like me is like the condor or the spotted owl or something to be protected,'' he said last night. ``We really need to figure out some way not to fill the golden goose but actually to have abundance grow.''

Tucked away into GQ's new politics issue --- with Barack Obama on the cover --- is a short interview with NBC co-chairman Ben Silverman, who is asked about his political aspirations. He doesn't deny it.

"I want to do my job now incredibly well," he says. "But I absolutely want to enter public service in my late forties. I have been blessed with so many opportunities and gifts."

The mag also hits Silverman's biggest potential handicap head on --- whether he's inhaled.

The interviewer, Mickey Rapkin, remarks, "I hear you're a stoner."

"You know what? Not true," Silverman says. "No comment. I was a young, single man at one point, and I went to a nice liberal arts northeastern college, and you know what? You walk around those hallways..."

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

A day after the news that Hillary Clinton will visit "The Ellen Show" comes word that Barack Obama will drop by "The Tyra Banks Show." It may all be coincidence, but as the Los Angeles Times' Top of the Ticket points out, it seems like a teeter-totter as each camp tries to equal the other in exposure. Obama sets an Oprah Winfrey fund-raiser for Sept. 8; Clinton sets one with Magic Johnson (a former talk show host) on Sept. 14.

What is murky is whether these daytime talk shows will feel obligated in any way to extend invites to other candidates as well, right on down to Mike Gravel. When Arnold Schwarzenegger appeared on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" last year, Democrats filed a complaint when his challenger Phil Angelides was not given equal airtime. But the FCC dismissed the complaint, apparently on the grounds that Leno's show was exempt from equal time rules because it fell in the category of a news program, interview show or documentary.

But some talk shows save themselves the agony and invite all contenders, anyway. Ironically, this year "The Tonight Show" has been featuring candidates across the board this year, even longshot Tom Vilsack before he dropped out of the race.

Viacom Donates: The media conglom has chipped in $1 million for the construction of the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial on the National Mall. They will be the title sponsor of The Dream Concert on Sept. 18 to raise money for the project.

Rupert's Revelation: Fortune's Marc Gunther reports on Rupert Murdoch's climate crusade.

Posting on Salon.com last week, former Clinton administration adviser Sidney Blumenthal created a bit of a stir when he wrote that the recently released doc "No End in Sight" was "spooking" the White House as it mounts a PR offensive next month to stay the course in Iraq.

Over the weekend in Variety I profiled the movie's filmmaker, Charles Ferguson, a policy expert and Internet entrepreneur who invested $2 million of his own money to make the pic, which chronicles the U.S.'s mistakes in Iraq largely through the eyes of those who were involved.

"No End in Sight" is, by and large, a standard talking heads doc, narrated by Campbell Scott. And much of the information is not news in Washington circles, as it already has come through in books like "Fiasco" and "State of Denial." In fact, a recent screening at the Capitol reportedly was not well attended.

But "No End in Sight" is still captivating because it is so basic. Absent any filmmaking gimmick or a super charged point-of-view, it strings the facts together through the first-hand accounts of people like Richard Armitage (below), Lawrence Wilkerson, Jay Garner and Barbara Bodine. They largely were believers in the idea of removing Saddam, as was Ferguson, but quickly found an administration ill-prepared to govern Iraq and ill-informed about the country it was to occupy. Those who opposed the way that things were being planned were marginalized. Or there was suspicion of partisan loyalties.

An example: Garner's group, originally put in charge of post-war occupation, went into Iraq in 2003 with 160 unarmored SUVs for 400 people. "Of those 400 people, there were 11 people who spoke Arabic," Ferguson says. "They did not have e-mail. They did not have Internet access. And they had eight satellite telephones. Now I didn't think that part of being a Republican was being opposed to e-mails and telephones. I didn't think that was a liberal, conservative, Republican or Democratic issue. That's just fucking insane. And there were many things like that."

Much blame is pinned on Paul Bremer, who succeeded Garner as the head of the post-war occupation, but it is clear that many of his decisions came via Washington support or directive. After initially agreeing to be interviewed, Bremer then backed out. Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice and President Bush all declined. Ferguson does cull video of Rumsfeld's famous press conferences, in which he initially dismisses the insurgency and says, "I don't do quagmires."

One adviser who agreed to be interviewed, Walt Slocombe, responsible for overseeing the creation of a new Iraqi army, defends the planning, but was not in the inner circle. That leaves lingering questions as to "why" so many decisions were made.

"I don't know if we are ever going to know, because these critical decisions were made by an extraordinarily small number of people," Ferguson says. "We are really talking, in an honest way, about less than six. And often with no one else in the room, which is unheard of in Washington DC."

Ferguson was sympathetic to the idea of removing Saddam --- for reasons of regional stability and on humanitarian grounds, but "even before the war started there were disturbing signs."

"There was lack of attention to the international community," he says. "They were almost going out of their way to offend the international community." He also cites the way they booted Gen. Eric Shinseki after he suggested that many more troops would be needed than were being planned.

"They were very secretive and they were very effective in withholding information, but the things you could see on the outside worried me, and then pretty quickly after the war I began to hear disturbing things," he says. "What I ended up finding out and concluding, was that by August or September of 2003, it was all over."

As for the media, Ferguson is a bit mystified why more outlets didn't start reporting about the extent of the insurgency much earlier. He himself started to get a clearer picture of the problems in the country in the latter part of 2003, in talks with George Packer, in Iraq filing dispatches for the New Yorker.

"I don't think (coverage) has improved all that much," he says. "It has certainly gotten more skeptical. People don't take the administration's word for things. ...I am still concerned that it is relatively superficial. In fact, there aren't too many reporters left in Iraq, in part because it is too dangerous and in part because it is no longer 'hot, cool' news."

He rejects a recent op-ed in the New York Times, "A War We Might Just Win," in which Brookings scholars Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack wrote that the security situation in Iraq was improving.

"They have basically an absolutely perfect record," Ferguson says. "They have been wrong about everything they have said since 2002. First of all, it is factually very dubious. When I speak with Iraqis, and I ask Iraqis what did you think of that article, and is there any chance that they were right, they all say, 'No. It is crazy.' They all said the same thing about these guys, and that is that they parachute into Iraq and they travel completely and solely with the American military, and they talk only to the people the American military wants them to talk to. They stay for a grand total of eight days and then they write this article like they know anything."

Ferguson is not optimistic about what will happen. In regular contact with Iraqis he has met through the years, as well as those he interviewed on a month-long trip to the country in 2006, he says that the "structural decline of the country is continuing." He points to deteriorating infrastructure, like the lack of running water for half of Baghdad's population.

Like many scholars, he does not see any winning solution, only the need to "keep trying things and be prepared to change things if they don't work."

"Most of the people I speak with think that if the United States withdraws precipitously, it will be a really serious bloodbath," he says. "I would be delighted if everyone would tell me, 'If the United States withdraws, everything will be OK. The Iraqis would be able to negotiate among themselves. They would make a deal and things would be alright. That is not what most people tell me. What most people tell me is that the presence of U.S. forces causes a lot of anger and stress, but it also keeps the lid on. And if that lid is taken off, the result is probably going to be very unattractive."

He adds, "At some point, whether because the military is going to be broken or through congressional pressure or both, they are going to have to start withdrawing troops. I have very little confidence they will do this as well as it could be done. And I think that, even in the best of conditions when they start doing that  there is a high likelihood of a bloodbath and even a regional war involving the Iranians on one side and the Saudis on the other."

Logo's television audience is not yet measured by Nielsen, but it did release some figures from last week's presidential forum that it says broke an online record.

Logo says that more than 180,000 users viewed video of the forum, in what they say was the largest online video event for the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were the most popular views, followed by Dennis Kucinich, John Edwards, Bill Richardson and Mike Gravel.

That online audience certainly is small compared to other webcasts --- like the recent LiveEarth concerts --- but this was definitely a niche event aimed at a specific demo. 

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

Updated

Tonight at the Beverly Hills Hotel, the Creative Coalition introduces the three chairs for the org's activity at the 2008 Democratic and Republican conventions (it's a non-partisan group, so yes they do show up for both). Tim Daly, Kerry Washington and Sue Kramer will lead the efforts (with a major assist from exec director Robin Bronk) to "harness the power and platform of Hollywood behind issues topping the national agenda in this election year." Said Daly, "We have a great opportunity every four years to bring people together from the arts and entertainment community with those who influence national policy. We are able to be an important link between Hollywood and Washington."

Reveling in Rove: William Triplett and Michael Learmonth examine why Karl Rove chose the Wall Street Journal to break the news of his departure.  Citing Rove's upbeat mood in the Journal, Slate's John Dickerson doubts that Rove will choose to be on the sidelines, and instead spend his time shoring up Bush's legacy.

Romney's Money: Mitt Romney released his financial statements on Monday, including the news that he has sold off investments in Harrah's Entertainment and other casino companies as well as an oil firm that did business in the Sudan.

Fox Drops Its "Daily Show": The conservative's answer to Jon Stewart, "The Half Hour News Hour," will not be renewed by Fox News after a 15-episode run.

"Batman" Cameo: Comic book fan Sen. Patrick Leahy will do a cameo in Warner Bros.' next "Batman" film.

"Invisible" in Iowa: Hillary Clinton unveils her first ad, called "Invisible," which will run in Iowa.

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

Updated

With Karl Rove's resignation today, there are two scenes that stand out as a study in contrasts:

November 2001: Rove presides over a gathering of studio heads, guild leaders, even a few stars at the Beverly Hilton, where the industry expresses a unity not seen since World War II in offering its help in the war on terror.

April 2007: Rove, at the otherwise friendly environs of the White House Correspondents Dinner, gets in a verbal tiff with Laurie David over the Bush administration's environmental policies (or, depending on who you are, lack thereof).

Rove's rise and fall, chronicled in a new Atlantic Monthly feature "What Went Wrong?," mirrored that of the Bush administration. And many of Hollywood's progressives are quick to note that his aura as a political wizard degraded into that of a pariah. Rove riffed --- and rapped --- on this in a March appearance at another correspondents' gathering, above.

Yes to YouTube:  The GOP version of the CNN/YouTube debates looks to be back on, although Mitt Romney is not yet officially in. The new date is Nov. 28. Romney was critical of the first debate because a snowman got to ask a question. That snowman, Billiam, tells the GOP contender to "lighten up slightly."

Murdoch Money: It turns out John Edwards' daughter collected some of the News Corp. money for the candidate's book "Home," according to The Politico. Cate Edwards was listed as a co-author.

Ted's Shortfall: Portfolio reports in its second issue that Ted Turner has come up about $345 million short on his pledge to donate $1 billion to the United Nations.

Stephen at Straw Poll: Mitt Romney won Saturday's Iowa Straw Poll, and Mike Huckabee placed a surprisingly strong second, but Sam Brownback had the surprise guest, Stephen Baldwin. M.E. Sprengelmeyer of the Rocky Mountain News writes Brownback's appearance had the feel of a Christian revivial. Sprengelmeyer writes: "He was replaced on stage by actor Stephen Baldwin, a born-again Christian, who said he spent his own money and flew across the country just so he could endorse Brownback at the straw poll." Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, a longshot whose campaign is tied to combating illegal immigration, hosted a surreal set of men dressed up in Mexican hats --- perhaps akin to Al Jolson in "The Jazz Singer."  "Never a fan of political correctness, Tancredo enlisted a barbershop quartet decked out in stereotypical Mexican and cowboy costumes to welcome people to his giant, midway tent." Photo by M.E. Sprengelmeyer.

Magic Johnson will host a fund-raiser for Hillary Clinton on Sept. 14.

The Los Angeles Times reports the basketball great will have Clinton over at his house just days after Barack Obama is hosted by another superstar, Oprah Winfrey, at her estate in Montecito.

Co-hosts of the celebrity event will be Quincy Jones, Berry Gordy and music industry executive Clarence Avant.

This is yet another sign of the breakneck competition between the candidates for high-profile endorsements and, more importantly, Los Angeles-area campaign dollars.

Here's a video testimonial for Clinton from Jones, posted on HillaryHub.com.

Updated

Following the Human Rights Campaign/Logo forum, the three leading presidential candidates courted donors within blocks of each other on West Hollywood.

Stepping into the unofficial ground zero of L.A.'s gay community, Hillary Clinton spoke at the landmark The Abbey to a packed house of some 700 donors. Some in fact became a bit unruly in the wait to hear her speak, as the room erupted in shouts of "Hillary! Hillary!"

Outside, crowds and about a dozen protesters huddled behind barricades, trying to get a listen as she took to a makeshift stage near one of the nightspot's three bars.

"The difference between our two parties cannot be clearer," said Clinton, alluding not just to major differences on the war but the fact that none of the GOP presidential candidates accepted invitations to the forum.

At Area nightclub on La Cienega Boulevard, Obama took to a makeshift podium, where he  repeated many of the themes of his stump speech. Director Paris Barclay, Seth Green and Zach Braff  were among the celebrities in the crowd, which erupted into a rallying cry of "Fire it up!"

Although he highlighted many of the themes from his stump speech, Obama defended his pledge, made during the recent YouTube debate, to sit down with any world leader. Clinton had criticized him for making such a statement, calling it "naive."

"I am not scared of losing a propaganda war to any dictator, and I'm not afraid to sit down with anybody," he said.

Edwards appeared nearby, at the nightclub Republic. The event, at $15 per person, was the least costly of all of the post-debate fund-raisers. A packed crowd heard him sound some of his familiar themes.

"I thought that he hit the nail on the head, which was basically that the Republicans use gay rights as a divisive issue and now they are intruding religion or whatever their angle is to try and turn people against each other," said Ian Chowdhury, a lawyer from San Fernando Valley. "It's so not the issue we should focus on right now. Everybody should let everybody else alone."

A bit further away, Dennis Kucinich held an event with some of his supporters at the Santa Monica Boulevard nightclub Circus Disco.

Here's some video highlights of Clinton at the Abbey, and Edwards at Republic, which gives you a sense of the atmosphere.

---Stewart Scott, Pamela McClintock and Elsa Bertet contributed to this report. Video of Clinton provided by Scott, Edwards provided by Bertet.

Update: Here's the recap from "The Daily Show."

It's easy to dismiss celebrities as political commentators. Even Melissa Etheridge, at last night's Democratic forum on Logo, noted that she is "not even a journalist. I'm an incredibly privileged rock star."

As indulgent as she could be, she was responsible for two of the night's most memorable moments --- ones that actually have significance beyond gay issues.

The first was when she asked Bill Richardson whether homosexuality is a choice or biological. "It's a choice." When he said it, there were gasps, and even a few hisses, in the room. Then she asked again. "Well, I'm not a scientist. I don't see this as an issue of science or definition."

Within a half hour after the debate the Richardson camp issued a clarification, in which the New Mexico governor noted that he actually does not think sexual orientation is a choice.

But Etheridge also  had a moment when she pointed out that she came out the week that Bill Clinton was inaugurated as president. "It was wonderful. We were very, very hopeful, and in the years that followed, our hearts were broken. We were thrown under the bus. We were pushed aside."

Clinton responded, "Well, you know, obviously Melissa, I don't see it quite the way that you describe."

For Richardson, it only adds to the impression that he is prone to stumble. For Clinton, it shows that she will have to defend her husband's record, not just her own.

Called the Visible Vote and sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign and  Logo, the event was the latest in a series of presidential forums, each of which gets smaller ratings than the one before. Given that Logo is still in its relative infancy, it will be interesting to see how many viewers it drew.

What worked was the format: Instead of sound bites, candidates actually had a chance to talk significantly about certain issues. Few described any personal stories, as some had hoped, but there was plenty of effort to equate their own struggles to that of the gay rights movement. For example, Hillary Clinton described her efforts in holding back Republican Congress. Barack Obama invoked the struggles of those of different skin color, and said, "When you are a black guy named Barack Obama, you know what it's like to be on the outside." John Edwards cited his wife's efforts to fight back against Ann Coulter.

Whether this makes any difference politically depends on how significant the gay vote is --- and that in and of itself has been in dispute. The candidates actually faced some hard-hitting questions from the Washington Post's Jonathan Capehart and HRC's Joe Solmonese, and Etheridge's zingers were often deftly followed by moderator Margaret Carlson. The latter also steered the conversation away from one of its tangents, when Etheridge and Richardson traded the latest news of the bark beetle. There were few softballs.

In the studio, the crowd treated it as no less than an important chapter in gay rights. That was evident by those who turned up, a mix of celebrities, community leaders and major donors. Among them were Neil Patrick Harris, Jane Lynch, producer Max Mutchnick, producer Bruce Cohen, entrepreneur Skip Paul, Los Angeles city councilman Bill Rosendahl, state Assemblyman Mike Feuer,  attorney Alan Hergott and West Hollywood mayor John Duran. Also present: producer Steve Bing and Arianna Huffington.

Each of the candidates had their strengths, but super-longshot Mike Gravel probably did his best at endearing himself to the crowd.

Again, it was Etheridge, who noted, "You are unusual for generation of straight white men. But you actually support same sex marriage."

Gravel replied, "Now, about my generation, most of them are wrong."

Here's highlights, via Logo:

Obama is asked to compare the civil rights movement to the gay rights movement.

Here's yet another anecdote for what's turning into a bizarre election year --- er, pre-election year.

Rumors were rampant on Wednesday that Angelina Jolie would be endorsing John Edwards. She is not endorsing any candidate yet, and she released a statement to set things straight.

“There are many false stories that circulate about me, but the one I feel I need to address, because it is about such an important topic, is that I have not decided to endorse John Edwards, or any other presidential candidate,” Jolie said.

“Like many Americans, I am learning more about the candidates records and positions but at this time I have not yet made an endorsement,” she said.

That's the question that the group is asking on its website after a performance at Lollapalooza on Sunday night.

A live webcast that was sponsored by AT&T was missing certain lyrics.

According to the group, "When asked about the missing performance, AT&T informed Lollapalooza that portions of the show were in fact missing from the webcast, and that their content monitor had made a mistake in cutting them."

Unfortunately for AT&T, the mistake came in the form of hyper-political comments. They were lyrics sung during the performance of "Daughter" and sung to the tune of Pink Floyd's "Another Brick in the Wall."

One was, "George Bush, leave this world alone." (the second time it was sung); and the other was "George Bush find yourself another home."

Pearl Jam is holding the case up as an example of the perils of media consolidation and why greater protections are needed to ensure greater freedom on the Internet.

Or perhaps it is the inevitable miscommunication in corporate bureaucracy.

Speaking of the debates, an alliance of conservative and liberal bloggers are touting ABC's and NBC's decisions to "liberate" debate coverage --- meaning their video will be free for posting around the Web, YouTube, etc. without fear of copyright infringement.

“ABC and NBC deserve praise for leveling the playing field--allowing everyday people to share key debate moments on blogs and YouTube just like the networks choose moments to show on the air,” said Adam Green, who leads media reform and Internet freedom campaigns for MoveOn.org Civic Action. “It's good for our democracy that TV networks are removing themselves as the sole deciders of which debate moments can have a life online.”

Mike Krempasky, co-founder of RedState.com, said, “These networks are not only embracing new technology, but new communities. Their willingness to loosen the reins a bit will go a long way towards improving our politics as more and more people get involved.”

CBS has yet to release its video. CNN has. And Fox has declined.

Updated

It was a crowd fit for ... Dennis Kucinich?

A few commentators weighed in with the opinion that Dennis Kucinich gained the most out to last night's AFL-CIO debate at Soldier Field in Chicago. Mike Gravel was not present, so he had the fringe candidate spot all to himself. He was able to upstage John Edwards by tracking even farther to the left than he was. And his positions on NAFTA (abolish it) and health care (no insurers, just single payer, Michael Moore-endorsed coverage) resonated with the revved up labor audience. It didn't matter that he wore an ill-fitting suit.

Writes Chris Cillizza in the Washington Post's The Fix: "Give Kucinich his due: he was great last night. Of course, unlike the rest of the candidates on stage, Kucinich is not bound by concerns over saying something that might make him unelectable in a primary or general election. His miniscule chance of winning frees him to speak his mind on the war in Iraq, NAFTA, health care and anything else he is asked about."

Next to Hillary Clinton's "I'm your girl," he also had one of the night's signature lines, on trade with China: "The time to worry about China trade was really when some of my friends up here on the stage actually voted for most favored nation. Now, as president, my most favored nation is America. And I want to say, you know, there was a myth when I was growing up in Cleveland that if you dig a hole deep enough, you'll get to China. We're there." 

Moderator Keith Olbermann, who has called for the impeachment of Bush and Cheney, further burnished his credentials as the left's answer to Bill O'Reilly. The debate --- the second Democratic gathering in four days --- averaged 960,000 viewers, which puts it on the lower end of these events so far this year.

Kucinich holds a fund-raiser on Sunday at the Chopra Center for Living in Encinitas, with a host committee that includes director Paul Haggis and actress Shelley Morrison.

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

After debating to a stadium crowd last night in Chicago, the field of Democratic presidential contenders (sans Joe Biden and Chris Dodd) comes to California on Thursday for a much more staid forum but no less unique. They will participate in a Human Rights Campaign/Logo forum on gay rights. Preview here. While the event is being heralded as an historic moment, there are some doubts as to whether it is politically prudent. Pollster Peter A. Brown writes in The Politico today that in some key swing states, the endorsement from a gay rights group can hurt more than it can help. It's likely that such findings will be challenged by other data suggesting that acceptance is on the rise.

Oprah and Iowa: The New York Observer's Felix Gillette and Leon Neyfakh examine Oprah's influence over the presidential race. Most interesting is that should help get out the vote in Iowa. Oprah would make “a gigantic difference,” said Gordon Fischer, who was chair of the Iowa Democratic Party from 2002 to 2004. 

“Typically some of [her viewers] would [vote in a primary] and some of them wouldn’t, and it sort of remains to be seen, but she’s the kind of person who can reach lots and lots of people and tell them to go out and vote."

Roseanne's Rants: Were Roseanne's diatribes about President Bush written under the influence?

Of Note: Just one of the 08 candidates at last night's labor debate is in the AFL-CIO: As he pointed out, Dennis Kucinich is a member of IATSE Local 600, the International Cinematographers Guild.

That, and other news, in today's Political Panorama.

Fred Thompson earned his reputation as a straight-shooting country lawyer from his time as a prosecutor on the Senate Watergate Committee, and he even touts the fact that his line of inquiry led to the revelation of President Nixon's secret taping system. ABC News' Jake Tapper, however,  suggests that the history is a bit more murky.

Tapper writes, "While some Democrats on the committee to this day profess respect and admiration for Thompson, he was seen as others as a "spy" for the Nixon White House -- an accusation buttressed, at least in part, by Thompson's own writings, which confirm that he tipped off the Nixon White House about internal happenings on the committee."

Ironically, those tapes also reveal what Nixon felt about Thompson. He called him "dumb as hell" but "friendly."

Donation Database: The HuffingtonPost has launched Fundrace2008, allowing users to track giving to presidential candidates. A particular  favorite: Larry Flynt,  who gave $2,300 to Dennis Kucinich.

Quotable: Bill Clinton on Rupert Murdoch's purchase of the Wall Street Journal, per the HuffingtonPost: "Anti-trust law should apply. I think we shouldn't have abandoned the fairness law; if a media outlet were pushing a particular political point of view...then you had a right to demand the opposite point of view. The airwaves belong to the public, not to anybody, particularly not to Fox News.

"But having said all that, the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal is even more right wing and irrational than most of the commentators on Fox News.

"And completely predictable...it's like Pavlov's dogs."

Has Steven Spielberg influenced China on Darfur?

Given the opaque nature of the upper echlons of the Chinese government, it's unknown. But that has been the suggestion by some press outlets after the U.N. Security Council, with China's support, passed a resolution last week to send a 26,000-strong peacekeeping force to Darfur.

Stories in late July suggested that Spielberg was considering backing out of his role as artistic adviser to the Olympic Games unless something more was done about Darfur, although the director's rep Andy Spahn said that Spielberg was still monitoring the situation and talking with with Chinese officials.

On Monday, Spahn sounded encouraged.

"The fact that the resolution passed is certainly important," Spahn says. "The test will be in the implementation and how quickly peacekeepers get on the ground."

"All of us need to keep the pressure on to ensure that peace talks get underway and that the peacekeeping force gets on the ground as quickly as possible."

Spielberg sent an open letter to Chinese president Hu Jintao in March, calling on greater action by the Chinese to stop the genocide in Darfur. 

After resisting calls to intervene, China deployed a special envoy and lobbied Sudan to accept a U.N. peacekeeping force.

Spahn says they are currently in the process of setting up a face-to-face meeting with Chinese officials, although no date or place has been set.

Asked whether the director has had an impact, Spahn says, "I hope so."